Forex News Timeline

Monday, October 5, 2020

Analysts at Citibank see the EUR/USD pair recovering over the next months. The forecast the pair will trade at 1.17 in a three month period, reaching

Analysts at Citibank see the EUR/USD pair recovering over the next months. The forecast the pair will trade at 1.17 in a three month period, reaching 1.22 on a six to twelve months horizon.  Key Quotes: “Medium term, relative real rate differentials continue to make new local highs (almost back to zero in EUR less USD), reducing the relative attractiveness of owning US dollars for investors. We still believe that the medium – long term likelihood of EUR/USD breaking 1.20 remains high, particular as US real rates are unlikely to move materially higher given the Fed’s fresh mandate. Besides, hard data showed that the economic recovery continues.” “EURUSD held good resistance between 1.1780 and 1.1790 (Trend lines and 55-day MA) and has since moved lower. Good support remains at 1.1612 and a break below, if seen, would bring our minimum 1.15 target back into focus.”
 

White House Press Secretary Kelly McEnany has announced that she has tested positive, joining a growing list of people related to President Donald Tru

White House Press Secretary Kelly McEnany has announced that she has tested positive, joining a growing list of people related to President Donald Trump's COVID-19 disease.  Her positive result comes after constantly testing negative from Thursday onwards. That raises concerns that other people could also be diagnosed with the disease in the upcoming days. Vice-President Mike Pence has tested negative in the past few days but had been exposed to the president and other senior staff and politicians. 

Data released on Monday showed the ISM Services index came in above expectations. Analysts at Wells Fargo suggest the rise in the ISM services survey

Data released on Monday showed the ISM Services index came in above expectations. Analysts at Wells Fargo suggest the rise in the ISM services survey to 57.8 in September contrasts with recent “hard” data showing the recovery is losing momentum. Key Quotes:  “The stronger pace of growth signalled by the survey contrasts with recent “hard” data on spending and employment. However, as a diffusion index, it suggests that the recovery is at least broadening to where more firms are reporting increases in activity, even if “hard” data point to more incremental gains in the overall level of economic activity recently.” “For the first time since February, more firms reported increasing employment than cutting jobs. The net share seeing orders rise also improved, with the new orders index back above 60.”

Gold prices are rising on Monday, and recently the ounce climbed to $1918, reaching the highest level since September 22. As of writing, XAU/USD trade

Metals rise sharply amid risk appetite and a weaker US dollar.XAU/USD holds upside bias, testing 20-day moving average.Gold prices are rising on Monday, and recently the ounce climbed to $1918, reaching the highest level since September 22. As of writing, XAU/USD trades at $1913, up 0.80% for the day boosted by a decline of the US dollar and amid risk appetite. The US dollar is trading at the lowest in weeks despite the better-than-expected ISM service sector report. The DXY fell below 93.50, a two week low and remains near the bottom and under pressure. At the same time, equity prices in Wall Street are rising. The Dow Jones is up 1.25%, and the Nasdaq gains 1.60%. Metals are gaining from the current environment. While XAU/USD $15 on Monday, silver is rising by more than 2%. XAG/USD reached at $24.50, the highest since September 22. Technical levels XAU/USD holds a bullish tone moving in an ascendant channel. On the upside, the immediate resistance is seen at $1920, a consolidation on top would clear the way to more gains, targeting the $1940 zone. A reversal from the current level in XAU/USD would weaken the upside. Now the $1900 level is the immediate support followed by $1885. A consolidation below would sign more weakness ahead.  

Gold prices have returned to trade in tandem with stock markets and are on the rise. Investors are optimistic about President Donald Trump's condition

Gold prices have returned to trade in tandem with stock markets and are on the rise. Investors are optimistic about President Donald Trump's condition, hoping he can leave the hospital shortly and return to regular work. Moreover, the precious metal is benefiting from reports that Republicans and Democrats are making progress in talks for the next fiscal stimulus package.How is XAU/USD positioned on the charts? The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that gold has broken above several resistance lines, which now turn into support. Close to its current price, XUA/USD has support at around $1,910, which is the convergence of the Simple Moving Average 10-15m and the Fibonacci 61.9%.  It is followed by a considerable cushion at $1,904, which is a juncture including the previous four-hour high, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, and the SMA 50-1h. The next support line is at $1,901, which is the confluence of the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, the SMA 10-4h, the Fibonacci 38.2$ one-day, and the SMA 100-15m.  Resistance is at $1,926, which is the meeting point of the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 1 and the SMA 200-4h.  Further above, the upside target is $1,938, which is where the PP one-day R3 and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month converge.  Key XAU/USD resistances and supports Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence

After closing the previous week in the negative territory, the USD/CAD pair extended its slide on Monday and touched its lowest level in two weeks at

USD/CAD dropped to its lowest level since September 21st on Monday.Ricing crude oil prices help commodity-related CAD gather strength.Risk flows make it difficult for USD to find demand.After closing the previous week in the negative territory, the USD/CAD pair extended its slide on Monday and touched its lowest level in two weeks at 1.3255. As of writing, the pair was down 0.35% on a daily basis at 1.3264. Surging crude oil prices support CAD Strong gains witnessed in crude oil prices at the start of the week help the commodity-related CAD outperform the greenback. Reports revealing that six Norwegian offshore oil and gas fields were shut due to a strike over pay provided a boost to crude oil on Monday. According to Reuters, Norway's total output capacity is expected to decline around 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which lost 7.7% last week, is currently up 6.3% at $39.35. On the other hand, the upbeat market mood is making it difficult for the greenback to find demand as a safe-haven. At the moment, the S&P 500 Index is up 1.33% on the day and the US Dollar Index is losing 0.4% at 93.43. Earlier today, the data from the US revealed that the economic activity in the service sector continued to expand at a robust pace in September and helped market sentiment improve. Moreover, reports suggesting that US President Donald Trump could be discharged from the hospital as early as Monday is allowing risk flows to continue to dominate the markets.  On Tuesday, International Merchandise Trade data for August will be featured in the Canadian economic docket. Technical levels to watch for  

There were 12,594 new confirmed coronavirus infections in the UK as of Monday morning, the UK government data showed, per Reuters. This reading follow

There were 12,594 new confirmed coronavirus infections in the UK as of Monday morning, the UK government data showed, per Reuters. This reading followed Sunday's concerning increase of 22,961. Further details of the report revealed that there were 19 fatalities within 28 days of testing positive, compared to 33 on Sunday. Market reaction These figures don't seem to be having a major impact on the British pound's performance against its rivals. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was up 0.38% on the day at 1.2978.

The economic activity in the US is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels until late-2021, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans s

The economic activity in the US is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels until late-2021, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "The US economy surprisingly resilient despite the virus' horrific death toll." "The US economy still has a long way to go." "Could be 2023 before unemployment is at 4%, inflation reaches 2% sustainably." "Inflation modestly overshooting 2% for a few years after 2023." "Recessionary dynamics to gain traction without more federal fiscal aid before too long." Fed's work on inflation might not be complete when it raises rates from current zero level." "After rate liftoff, Fed policy to stay accommodative until inflation averaging goal is met." "Could take until 2026 to get to 2% inflation on average if inflation only allowed to rise to 2.25%." "Fed can't be timid on overshooting 2% inflation." "Fed likely would have delayed rate hikes to at least 2017 if new framework had been in force." Market reaction The US Dollar Index largely ignored these comments and was last seen losing 0.44% on the day at 93.40.

"There will be no second lockdown for businesses to contain the coronavirus pandemic," German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said on Monday, as repor

"There will be no second lockdown for businesses to contain the coronavirus pandemic," German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said on Monday, as reported by Reuters. Increasing taxes in the current situation in Germany "would be poison" for the economic recovery from the pandemic, Altmaier further argued. Market reaction Germany's DAX 30 Index remains on track to close the day decisively higher after these comments. As of writing, the index was up nearly 1% on the day at 12,813. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair is up 0.58% at 1.1785.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has a monetary policy this Tuesday at 03:30 GMT, and while the central bank is expected to remain on hold, speculative i

The Reserve Bank of Australia has a monetary policy this Tuesday at 03:30 GMT, and while the central bank is expected to remain on hold, speculative interest is anticipating a dovish stance, paving the way for more easing coming in the near-term. The AUD/USD pair is trading on sentiment, which means that RBA’s announcement could have a limited impact, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports. See – Reserve Bank of Australia Preview: Seven major banks expectations Key quotes “The cash rate in Australia stands at a record low of 0.25% since March when the RBA also announced it was implementing yield curve control.  Policymakers announced a target for the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of around 0.25%.” “Speculation mounts that policymakers are preparing some new stimulus measures that may include cutting the cash rate further and expand asset purchases on longer-term bonds to lower the long-term yields and curb the appreciation of the Aussie.” “Ahead of the event, the market is in an upbeat mood, hoping the US Congress will be able to clinch a deal and that US President Trump will recover from COVID-19. The optimism underpins AUD/USD which may suffer a sharp setback, should policymakers decide to act as soon as this October. Chances of this happening, however, are quite a few.” “Hints on future action in the near-term may hit the Aussie, although it seems unlikely that any central bank will be able to overshadow sentiment-related trading. An optimistic RBA seems unlikely, but if it happens, and the greenback remains under pressure, the AUD/USD pair may get a boost and near the mentioned yearly high.”  

Jonathan Haskel, Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, said on Monday that he expects measured productivity to fall due to COV

Jonathan Haskel, Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, said on Monday that he expects measured productivity to fall due to COVID-19 as health and safety improvements hard to measure, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Rising UK mortgage rates probably reflect the withdrawal of cheaper products, risk aversion." "Fiscal policy is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in the UK, the BoE will focus on its inflation target." Market reaction The GBP/USD pair showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen gaining 0.36% on a daily basis at 1.2978.

The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone, just above mid-105.00s through the early North American session, albeit has retreated few pips from daily to

The upbeat market mood undermined the safe-haven JPY and assisted USD/JPY to gain traction.A weaker tone around the USD held bulls from placing aggressive bets and capped the upside.The USD remained depressed following the release of upbeat US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone, just above mid-105.00s through the early North American session, albeit has retreated few pips from daily tops. The pair built on the previous session's rebound from seven-day lows and gained some strong positive traction on the first day of a new trading week. A strong rebound in the equity markets undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher. The political uncertainty stemming from the US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus infection news eased after the medical team stated that he could be discharged from the hospital on Monday. The positive update on Trump's health revived investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets. The risk-on flow was further reinforced by a strong pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which further inspired bullish traders and remained supportive of the USD/JPY pair's positive move. However, the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar kept a lid on any further gains. The recent optimism that the US Congress would pass the stimulus measures faded rather quickly after the House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi highlighted areas of disagreement with Senate Republicans. This, in turn, held the USD/JPY pair bulls from placing any aggressive bets. The USD bulls remained on the defensive and failed to gain any respite from Monday's release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly jumped to 57.8 for September. The reading surpassed consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 56.3 and the 56.9 in August. The pair’s inability to capitalize on the positive move makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying, beyond the 105.70-75 immediate hurdle, before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. The USD/JPY pair might then aim to surpass the 106.00 mark and test the 106.25-30 supply zone. Technical levels to watch  

The economic activity in the US' service sector continued to expand at a robust pace in September with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Ser

ISM Services PMI rose more than expected in September.US Dollar Index stays deep in the red near 93.40 after the data. The economic activity in the US' service sector continued to expand at a robust pace in September with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services PMI arriving at 57.8. This reading came in better market expectation and August's print of 56.3 and 56.9, respectively. Further details of the publication revealed that the New Orders Index climbed to 61.5 from 56.8, the Employment Index edged higher to 51.8 from 47.9 and the Prices Paid Index declined to 59 from 64.2. Commenting on the data, "respondents' comments remain mostly optimistic about business conditions and the economy, which correlates directly to those businesses that are operating," said Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Business Survey Committee. "There continue to be capacity and logistics issues, as business volumes have increased."  Market reaction The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen losing 0.42% on a daily basis at 93.42.

United States ISM Services PMI came in at 57.8, above forecasts (56.3) in September

United States ISM Services New Orders Index registered at 61.5 above expectations (44.7) in September

United States ISM Services Prices Paid below expectations (61.1) in September: Actual (59)

United States ISM Services Employment Index came in at 51.8, below expectations (58.1) in September

The IHS Markit's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the US improved edged lower to 54.6 in September from 55 in August but showed that the

Markit Services PMI in US stayed comfortably above 50 in September.US Dollar Index stays deep in the red below 93.50 after the data.The IHS Markit's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the US improved edged lower to 54.6 in September from 55 in August but showed that the economic activity in the service sector continued to expand at a robust pace. This reading matched the previous estimate and the market expectation. Further details of the publication revealed that the Composite PMI fell from 54.6 in August to 54.3 in September.  Commenting on the data, “the US economy continued to rebound in September from the deep contraction seen at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, with business activity rising across both manufacturing and services to round off the strongest quarter since early-2019," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at the IHS Markit. "Covid-19 worries and social distancing continued to impact many businesses, however, especially in consumer-facing sectors, where demand for services fell once again."  Market reaction The US Dollar Index continued to push lower after this data and was last seen losing 0.42% on a daily basis at 93.41.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday, October 6 at 03:30 GMT. The market consensus is for the RBA t

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday, October 6 at 03:30 GMT. The market consensus is for the RBA to stay on hold while reiterating its further easing option and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of seven major banks regarding the upcoming central bank's decision. AUD/USD is trading in a relatively tight trading range below 0.7200 ahead of the meeting. See – Reserve Bank of Australia Preview: Paving the way for more stimulus Standard Chartered “We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the policy cash rate unchanged at 0.25% at its October meeting. Market expectations have swayed following Deputy Governor Debelle’s mid-September speech, before settling at our forecast of a November rate cut. We believe the RBA will cut the policy rate to 0.10% in November, while also adjusting the rate of its term funding facility and the target yield on three-year government bonds to 0.10%. It is also likely to reduce the interest rate paid on exchange settlement balances to between 2-5bps. Pausing in October will provide the RBA with crucial information on the labour market recovery under the revised JobKeeper and JobSeeker programmes, as well as the recovery in Victoria as the state is likely opened up (albeit slowly) in October.” ING “We do not expect a rate cut, although a shift to a more dovish rhetoric may be on the cards. The futures market seems to be pricing in around a 68% chance of a cut at this meeting, so we think the balance of risks for AUD is slightly tilted to the upside next week.” Deutsche Bank “Our Australia economists expect no change in policy, but we will be watching for clues about whether a rate cut might yet be delivered by the end of the year.” TDS “We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate/YCC target at 0.25% but for the Bank to highlight it continues to assess the merits of further monetary measures. The reason the RBA is likely to keep policy unchanged at this meeting is to assess the Federal and state budgets over the coming month before potentially announcing further easing at the Nov meeting.” Citibank “Calls have increased for the Bank to cut the policy rates in October. However, for Citi analysts to switch to the rate cutting camp, it would require a dovish addition that suggests further rate cuts are imminent.” Societé Generale  “The market thinks there’s a good chance of a rate cut, a view which we don’t share, but no move today may just see expectations pushed forward a month. For us, it’s Australia’s fiscal room for manoeuvre that makes the difference & makes us like the currency. It’s  much easier to be aggressive with fiscal policy from a low debt/GDP starting point, than to argue that debt levels just don’t matter.” DBS Bank “The RBA is not expected to cut rates but is likely to complement the budget initiatives with adjustment to its Term Funding Facility. Interest rate futures are still looking for the cash rate target to move lower to 0.10% from its present 0.25%.”  

Major equity indexes in the US opened decisively higher on Monday boosted by risk flows. As of writing, the S&P 500 Index was up 0.93% on the day at 3

Wall Street's main indexes started the new week on a firm footing.S&P 500 Energy Index is rising sharply on soaring crude oil prices.Defensive sectors trade in the negative territory on Monday.Major equity indexes in the US opened decisively higher on Monday boosted by risk flows. As of writing, the S&P 500 Index was up 0.93% on the day at 3,380, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was gaining 0.95% at 27,945 and the Nasdaq Composite was rising 1.2% at 11,206. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the Energy Index is up 1.5% at the start of the week supported by a sharp upsurge witnessed in crude oil prices. At the moment, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up 4.75% on a daily basis at $38.78. On the other hand, the defensive sectors, the Utilities Index and the Real Estate ındex, trade in the negative territory. Earlier in the day, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said that there was potential for a COVID-19 aid deal and helped market sentiment improve further. Additionally, Meadows noted that US President Donald Trump's condition was improving. However, it's still unclear if doctors will allow Trump to be discharged from the hospital on Monday. S&P 500 chart (daily)

United States Markit Services PMI meets forecasts (54.6) in September

United States Markit PMI Composite below forecasts (54.4) in September: Actual (54.3)

Jonathan Haskel, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, said on Monday that he stands ready to vote for more stimulus

Jonathan Haskel, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, said on Monday that he stands ready to vote for more stimulus if needed, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Material amount of spare capacity in the UK economy." "Near-term risks skewed to the downside." "Expecting medium-term supply-side issues from COVID." "Expecting a temporary period of subdued inflation pressure." "Low energy prices and fiscal policy is weighing on inflation." "There is growing evidence that social consumption is hurt by fears of COVID." Market reaction The GBP/USD pair largely ignored those comments and was last seen gaining 0.33% on the day at 1.2975. 

The EUR/USD pair is about to challenge the 1.1770 resistance level as is trading around 1.1760 ahead of the US opening, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analys

The EUR/USD pair is about to challenge the 1.1770 resistance level as is trading around 1.1760 ahead of the US opening, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, reports. Key quotes “The American dollar is under selling pressure amid a better market mood. News’ feeds were flooded by headlines related to US President Trump’s health after he announced he contracted COVID-19 last Friday. The latest news suggests that he may leave hospital as soon as today, the main support for the upbeat sentiment.” “Markit published the September final Services PMIs for the Union, which were revised higher for most economies, except for Spain. The EU index resulted at 48, better than the previous estimate of 47.6, although still signaling economic contraction. The Composite PMI came in at 50.4 from 50.1.” “The 4-hour chart shows that the bullish potential is limited, as the EUR/USDpair is struggling to surpass a mildly bearish 100 SMA, although holding above a flat 20 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, hold within positive levels, but without clear directional strength.”  “Bulls could have better chances on a break above 1.1770, the immediate resistance level.”  

The GBP/USD pair continued gaining traction through the mid-European session and climbed to two-week tops, around the 1.2980 region in the last hour.

GBP/USD shot to two-week tops, around 38.2% Fibo. level during the mid-European session.The set-up favours bullish traders and supports prospects for a move beyond the 1.3000 mark.Any meaningful dip might continue to find decent support near the 1.2900 confluence region.The GBP/USD pair continued gaining traction through the mid-European session and climbed to two-week tops, around the 1.2980 region in the last hour. Looking at the technical picture, the recent bounce from multi-week lows has been along an upward-sloping trend-line. The mentioned support coincides with 100-hour SMA and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. The pair has now moved back closer to a resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.3482-1.2676 recent downfall. Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts maintained their bullish bias and have also recovered from the negative territory on the daily chart. A subsequent move beyond the key 1.3000 psychological mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. The GBP/USD pair might then aim to reclaim the 1.3100 mark and extend the momentum further towards the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 1.3160-70 region. On the flip side, the 1.2950 horizontal zone now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might turn the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to slide back towards the 1.2900 confluence support. Some follow-through selling will negate prospects for any further gains. GBP/USD 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

After gaining more than 100 pips last week, the AUD/USD pair continued to edge higher on Monday but doesn't seem to be having gathered enough bullish

AUD/USD is trading in a relatively tight trading range below 0.7200.Wall Street looks to open in the positive territory.US Dollar Index edges lower toward 93.50 on Monday.After gaining more than 100 pips last week, the AUD/USD pair continued to edge higher on Monday but doesn't seem to be having gathered enough bullish momentum to test 0.7200 so far. As of writing, the pair was up 0.27% on the day at 0.7181. Upbeat data support AUD ahead of RBA meeting In the early trading hours of the Asian session, the data from Australia showed that the business activity in the service sector expanded in September with the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI rising to 50.8 from 50 in August. Additionally, the National Australia Bank's Business Conditions Index improved to 0 from -6 and provided an additional boost to the AUD. On the other hand, the upbeat market mood is weighing on the safe-haven greenback on Monday. With the S&P 500 futures rising more than 0.6% and pointing out to a strong start in Wall Street, the US Dollar Index is down 0.3% on the day at 93.52. Later in the day, the IHS Markit and the ISM will both release their Services PMI reports.  During an interview with Fox Business Network, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said that US President Donald Trump's condition is improving and added that it will be up to his doctors to decide whether he can be discharged later in the day. If risk flows continue to dominate financial markets in the second half of the day, AUD/USD could start pushing higher toward 0.7200. However, investors might opt out to stay on the sidelines while waiting for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to announce its Interest Rate Decision and release the Rate Statement. According to a recently conducted Reuters poll, 25 of the 36 surveyed economists expect that the RBA will leave its policy rate unchanged. ANZ Job Advertisements for September and August Trade Balance data will be featured in the Australian economic docket as well. Technical levels to watch for  

During an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said that there is potential for a COVID-19 aid deal,

During an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said that there is potential for a COVID-19 aid deal, as reported by Reuters. "The Trump administration is committed to getting a COVID-19 aid bill done, wants to move expeditiously but also be fiscally responsible," Meadows added.  Commenting on US President Donald Trump's condition, Meadows said that they continue to see improvements and noted that doctors will decide whether to discharge Trump later on Monday.  Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on market sentiment. As of writing, the S&P 500 futures are up 0.65% on the day at 3,360.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - also known as the ISM Services PMI at 1

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - also known as the ISM Services PMI at 14:00 GMT this Monday. The gauge is expected to have eased further in September and come in at 56.3 as compared to the previous month's reading of 56.9. Meanwhile, the employment sub-component is expected to have rebounded swiftly from the contraction territory and jump to 58.1 points from 47.9 previous. Following Friday's mixed US monthly jobs report, this will would play a critical role in influencing the USD price dynamics and produce some meaningful trading opportunities. How could it affect EUR/USD? Given that the recent price action has been exclusively sponsored by developments surrounding the coronavirus saga and the broader market risk sentiment, the data is unlikely to be a major game-changer for the EUR/USD pair. That said, a surprisingly stronger reading might provide a modest lift to the greenback and exert some pressure on the major. Conversely, a weaker reading would further weigh on the already weaker USD and assist the pair to build on its goodish intraday positive move to near two-week tops. Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Euro.dollar is trading above the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart but below the 100 and 200 SMAs. Momentum and the Relative Strength Index are going nowhere fast. All in all, the relatively limited range trading is showing up in these indicators. Support awaits at 1.1685, which was a swing low last week. It is followed by 1.1625 and 1.1610, support lines from late September.” Key Notes   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Euro set to tumble if Trump remains in hospital, but Congress could help   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls await sustained move beyond a one-month-old descending channel   •  EUR/USD Price Analysis: Battling 50-HMA after falling wedge breakout About the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that services constitute the largest sector of the US economy and result above 50 should be seen as supportive for the USD.

The economic recovery in Germany initially appeared V-shaped but is now becoming flatter, Jens Weidmann, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council

The economic recovery in Germany initially appeared V-shaped but is now becoming flatter, Jens Weidmann, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bundesbank President, said on Monday, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Fiscal policymakers have taken the right course of action in Germany and elsewhere." "Providing banks with ample liquidity, coupled with low interest rates, is crucial to ensuring that the economic crisis is not further aggravated by the financial system." "Economic activity has passed through the trough. The upward path to the previous level is still long and fraught with uncertainties." Market reaction The EUR/USD pair continues to push higher and was last seen gaining 0.43% on the day at 1.1766.

Gold managed to recover a major part of its early lost ground to two-day lows and has now moved back above the $1900 mark, closer to the top end of it

Gold reversed an early dip to $1887 region amid some renewed USD selling bias.A pickup in the US bond yields, the upbeat market mood might cap the upside.Investors now eye US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for some trading opportunities.Gold managed to recover a major part of its early lost ground to two-day lows and has now moved back above the $1900 mark, closer to the top end of its daily trading range. The positive news about the US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus infection boosted investors' confidence. This was evident from a goodish rebound in the equity markets, which dented demand for traditional safe-haven assets and exerted some pressure on the XAU/USD. A strong pickup in the US Treasury bond yields reinforced the risk-on mood and further collaborated towards driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. However, the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar helped limit losses for the dollar-denominated commodity. This comes amid political uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election on November 3rd, which extended some additional support to the safe-haven precious metal. The XAU/USD was last seen trading around the $1902 region, nearly unchanged for the day, awaiting US macro data. Monday's US economic docket highlights the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The data might influence the USD price dynamics. This, along with the broader market risk sentiment, will play a key role in driving the XAU/USD on the first day of the week. Technical levels to watch  

USD/JPY is trading at the upper end of its previous week´s range in the 105.60 price zone as speculation that US President Trump is recovering from CO

USD/JPY is trading at the upper end of its previous week´s range in the 105.60 price zone as speculation that US President Trump is recovering from COVID-19 is boosting the mood. The pair needs to break above last week high at 105.80 to turn bullish in the short-term, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik briefs. Key quotes “The market’s mood improved after a bumpy weekend, with the sentiment gyrating around US President Trump’s health. The leader of the world’s largest economy contracted COVID-19 last Friday and was later translated to a medical facility. Contradictory headlines throughout the weekend spurred concerns, although, at this point, news suggests that he is recovering. Equities are firmly up, as well as US Treasury yields, pushing USD/JPY higher.” “The 4-hour chart shows that it continues to develop between moving averages, with a directionless 200 SMA capping advances currently at 105.70. Technical indicators crossed their midlines into positive levels, but lack clear directional strength.”  “The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 105.80 last week, the level to surpass to confirm additional gains ahead.”  

The government is very sympathetic to doing more to drive the recovery in certain industries when the time is right, British Finance Minister Rishi Su

The government is very sympathetic to doing more to drive the recovery in certain industries when the time is right, British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak said on Monday, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Got to try and get as much of life and economy back to normal as possible." "Can't promise everything will be fine for Christmas." "There is a range of predictions, none of them good reading for the UK economy." "The speed of recovery is ultimately a function of how well we suppress the virus." "At least for the next six months, the virus will make life bumpy." Market reaction The GBP/USD pair largely ignored these comments and was last seen gaining 0.12% on the day at 1.2946.

After closing the last day of the previous week in the negative territory, the USD/CHF pair edged lower on Monday and touched its worst level in nearl

USD/CHF starts the week on the back foot.US Dollar Index is staying under modest bearish pressure.US economic docket will feature September PMI data. After closing the last day of the previous week in the negative territory, the USD/CHF pair edged lower on Monday and touched its worst level in nearly two weeks at 0.9155. As of writing, the pair was down 0.45% on the day at 0.9168. DXY extends last week's slide on Monday The selling pressure surrounding the greenback at the start of the week seems to be causing USD/CHF to stays under bearish pressure. The improving market sentiment on reports suggesting that US President Donald Trump could be discharged from the hospital on Monday is weighing on the greenback. At the moment, the S&P 500 futures are up 0.65% on the day, suggesting that Wall Street's main indexes are likely to open the day decisively higher. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, is down 0.18% on the day at 93.65. Later in the day, the IHS Markit and the ISM will release the Services PMI reports for September. Markets expect both data to show an ongoing expansion in the service sector's business activity at a robust pace. Better-than-expected PMI readings could provide an additional boost to risk sentiment and put additional weight on the USD's shoulders. On the other hand, the greenback could stage a recovery if the market mood sours in the second half of the day and help USD/CHF erase its losses. Technical levels to watch for  

The EUR/GBP cross held on to its gains through the mid-European session and was last seen trading near the top end of its daily range, around the 0.90

EUR/GBP attracted some dip-buying near the 0.9050 horizontal support.Brexit uncertainties held the GBP bulls from placing any aggressive bets.A goodish pickup in demand for the common currency remained supportive.The EUR/GBP cross held on to its gains through the mid-European session and was last seen trading near the top end of its daily range, around the 0.9080-85 region. The cross managed to find some support near mid-0.9000s, instead attracted some buying on the first day of a new trading week and recovered a part of the previous session's losses. The British pound's relative underperformance against its European counterpart could be solely attributed to persistent Brexit-related uncertainties. It is worth reporting that the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed in a phone call on Saturday to intensify Brexit talks to close significant gaps. The GBP bulls, however, seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets and even shrugged off an upward revision of the UK Services PMI. On the other hand, the shared currency benefitted from the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar. Positive news about the US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus infection boosted investors' confidence and triggered a fresh leg up in the equity markets, which, in turn, undermined the greenback's relative safe-haven demand. The euro was further supported by an upward revision of the Eurozone Services PMI prints and less bad than expected Sentix Investor Confidence Index, which came in at -8.3 for October as compared to -9.5 expected and -8.0 previous. It will now be interesting to see if the EUR/GBP cross is able to capitalize on the move or meets with some fresh supply at higher levels amid fresh jitters over the economic recovery in Europe amid the second wave of coronavirus infections. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further gains. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/GBP needs to close below its 55-day average at 0.9057 to see bearish pressure increase to add weight to the bias of the Credit Suisse analyst team

EUR/GBP needs to close below its 55-day average at 0.9057 to see bearish pressure increase to add weight to the bias of the Credit Suisse analyst team for a stronger GBP. As of writing, the pair rises to 0.9077, up 0.17% intraday on the day. Key quotes “EUR/GBP remains capped at its short-term downtrend and recent highs at 0.9148/58, but continues to hold support on a closing basis from its 55-day average, now at 0.9057. A closing break below here remains needed to see a more concerted move lower within the broader uptrend with support seen next at 0.9026/23, below which can see the 50% retracement of the April/September rally and potentially all the way to the lower end of the channel at 0.8912/08.  “Resistance is seen at 0.9125/28 initially, then 0.9148/58. Above here can see the downtrend break for a test of 0.9220/27, but with a break above here needed to suggest the broader uptrend has resumed for strength back to the 0.9292 recent high, with the top of the trend channel from late April now seen at 0.9325.”  

"We are only partway through this crisis," British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak said on Monday and added that the government had never been blind to t

"We are only partway through this crisis," British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak said on Monday and added that the government had never been blind to the difficult trade-offs and decisions coronavirus has forced upon them, per Reuters. Additional takeaways "I am committing myself to a single priority - to create, support and extend opportunity to as many people as I can." "We will protect the public finances, over the medium term getting our borrowing and debt back under control." "We have a sacred responsibility to future generations to leave the public finances strong." "This conservative government will always balance the books." Market reaction The GBP/USD pair showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen gaining 0.15% on the day at 1.2950.

S&P 500 stays trapped in a near-term range with immediate support seen at 3327/23 and resistance at 3379/81 and the Credit Suisse analyst team remains

S&P 500 stays trapped in a near-term range with immediate support seen at 3327/23 and resistance at 3379/81 and the Credit Suisse analyst team remains of the view this is consistent with a broader consolidation phase within the long-term uptrend. Key quotes “The S&P 500 is not unsurprisingly under pressure and although the cluster of supports at 3340/23 managed to hold on a closing basis on Friday, including the ‘neckline’ to the small base and rising 13 and 63-day averages, the gap lower and now potential downtrend is seen adding weight to our base case view we remain in a much more protracted consolidation/corrective phase.” “Immediate resistances move to 3369, with 3379/81 now ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower. Above though can reassert an upward bias for a move back to 3397/99, then what we look to be tougher resistance, starting at the mid-September highs at 3425/29, with the “measured base objective” at 3437 and with the 61.8% retracement of the fall from September at 3444.” “A close below 3327/23 would see a near-term top established for a fall back to 3298/93, with a break here needed to confirm the recent base has been negated with support then seen next at 3279, then the uptrend from June, seen today at 3235.”  “The VIX needs to break 31.18 to mark a near-term base.”    

Mexico Consumer Confidence: 36.3 (September) vs previous 42.1

Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a below expectations (43.4) in September: Actual (35.9)

USD/CAD maintains a base to suggest further corrective strength, with key resistance at 1.3421, whilst key support to maintain the base is at 1.3247/4

USD/CAD maintains a base to suggest further corrective strength, with key resistance at 1.3421, whilst key support to maintain the base is at 1.3247/41, per Credit Suisse. Key quotes “USD/CAD is consolidating near term post a sharp rejection from price resistance at 1.3421 and the 61.8% retracement of the June/September fall at 1.3440 last week, keeping us alert for and greatly increasing the risk of an earlier than anticipated resumption of the core bear trend (see below). Nevertheless, whilst above the “neckline” to the base at 1.3247/41, we stay mildly biased for further corrective strength, with resistance seen initially at the aforementioned 1.3421 and 1.3440.” “Removal of 1.3440 would expose the late July highs at 1.3451/60 next, ahead of the ‘measured base objective’ and 200-day average at 1.3496/3531, where we would look for a cap for the medium-term downtrend to then reassert itself.”  “A clear and closing break below 1.3247/41 would negate the small base to suggest a direct resumption of the medium-term bear trend, with support seen next at 1.3171/69.”  

The NZD/USD pair is having a difficult time making a decisive move in either direction on Monday. As of writing, the pair was posting small daily gain

NZD/USD is fluctuating in a narrow band on Monday.US Dollar Index stays in the negative territory above 93.50.IHS Markit and the ISM will release US Services PMI data.The NZD/USD pair is having a difficult time making a decisive move in either direction on Monday. As of writing, the pair was posting small daily gains at 0.6643. Risk flows help NZD gather strength At the start of the week, the market seems to have turned relatively upbeat amid reports suggesting that US President Donald Trump could leave the hospital as early as Monday. Reflecting the positive shift in sentiment, the S&P 500 futures are up 0.57% on a daily basis and major European equity indexes are gaining between 0.5% and 0.7%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which closed the previous week in the negative territory, is edging lower on Monday and allowing NZD/USD to cling to its daily gains. Ahead of the IHS Markit's and the ISM's Services PMI reports, the DXY is down 0.17% on the day at 93.65. Meanwhile, investors will keep a close eye on fresh developments surrounding President Trump's condition. A strong dally in US stocks could help NZD/USD push higher in the second half of the day. In the early Asian session on Tuesday, the NZIER Business Confidence data for the third quarter will be released from New Zealand. Technical levels to watch for  

GBP/USD is rising as the EU and UK agree to extend Brexit talks, yet details are lacking. Meanwhile, the safe-haven dollar is retreating in hopes that

GBP/USD is rising as the EU and UK agree to extend Brexit talks, yet details are lacking. Meanwhile, the safe-haven dollar is retreating in hopes that Trump is discharged from the hospital, Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, reports. Key quotes “An accord on future EU-UK relations may come around Halloween – the new deadline for concluding talks. PM Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held a conference call on Saturday, agreeing to extend negotiations, thus boosting the pound. On the other side of the pond, the safe-haven US dollar is retreating amid hopes that President Donald Trump will leave the Walter Reed hospital as his COVID-19 illness is improving.” “Brexit is far from being resolved. France has adopted a tough line on fisheries, a sensitive topic in London. Moreover, both sides are at loggerheads on state aid and other topics. Neither Brussels nor Britain published any details on progress, undermining sterling's rally. Investors have had their share of hopes and disappointments in recent weeks, and need substance to rally on.” “On Trump's coronavirus condition, there are reasons to be cautious. Sean Conley, the president's doctor, revealed on Sunday that Patient No. 1 suffered two episodes in which his oxygen level dropped to worrying levels. While his fever is now under control, it may be a result of using dexamethasone – steroids used for severe COVID-19 cases. The dollar may still rise if the president remains under medical supervision for another night.”  “There are higher chances for a fiscal stimulus deal. Trump has been speaking with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell over the weekend, trying to advance the next relief package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also expressed optimism on Friday.”  

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that they are trying to reduce the number of people who lose their jobs but acknowledged there are

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that they are trying to reduce the number of people who lose their jobs but acknowledged there are clearly tough times ahead, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "The incidence of cases corresponds to where we thought we were." "Crucial thing is that in future days and weeks we shall see if our additional measures have driven down the virus." "I have no doubt we can get on top of this virus." "The outbreaks seem more localised this time than it was in March and April, we will take steps to keep guidance as simple as we can." "We are working hard to get a vaccine, we feel they must on the verge of getting one." "We would have to have supplies of it, priority would be for the most vulnerable." "I encourage people to go out to local cinemas." Market reaction The UK's FTSE 100 Index edged slightly higher after these comments and was last seen gaining 0.65% on the day at 5,940.

Crude oil took two big hits last week – stalled US fiscal stimulus talks and President Trump taking ill with COVID-19. The latter appears to be an exo

Crude oil took two big hits last week – stalled US fiscal stimulus talks and President Trump taking ill with COVID-19. The latter appears to be an exogenous shock and strategists at OCBC Bank expect Brent Oil prices to recover to its $40-$43/bbl range. Key quotes “ Brent fell 7.2% across last Thursday and Friday and closed below the critical $40 handle on Friday. The US President taking ill with COVID-19 sent Brent spiralling on Friday but we view that as a one-off exogenous shock that impacted sentiment more than fundamentals.” “Reports suggest Trump might be leaving the hospital as early as today and that is expected to lift risk sentiment from here.” “We expect Brent to return to the $40-$43/bbl range within this week.”  

The USD/JPY pair edged higher through the first half of the European trading action and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily range, ar

USD/JPY gained traction on Monday amid fading safe-haven demand.Trump’s health update provided a strong lift to the global risk sentiment.A weaker tone surrounding the USD might keep a lid on any strong gains.The USD/JPY pair edged higher through the first half of the European trading action and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily range, around the 105.60-65 region. The pair caught some fresh bids on the first day of a new trading week and built on the previous day's rebound of around 35 pips from seven-day lows, or levels below the key 105.00 psychological mark. The momentum was sponsored by the upbeat market mood, which tends to undermine demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. Positive news about Trump’s coronavirus infection helped eased some of the political uncertainty and boosted investors' confidence. This was evident from a strong rebound in the equity markets, which drove flows from traditional safe-haven assets. Bulls further took cues from a pickup in the US Treasury bond yields. However, the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar might hold bulls from placing any aggressive bets and keep a lid on any runaway rally for the USD/JPY pair. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying beyond the 105.70-75 supply zone before positioning for any further appreciating move. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The data might influence the USD price dynamics. This, along with the broader market risk sentiment, will assist traders to grab some meaningful trading opportunities on Monday. Technical levels to watch  

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its consolidative mode into Europe on Monday, awaiting a fresh impetus for a sustained move above the $24 mark. Broad-based U

Silver’s path of least resistance appears to the upside.XAG/USD ranges in a week-long symmetrical triangle.Hourly RSI turns flat but remains in the bullish zone.Silver (XAG/USD) extends its consolidative mode into Europe on Monday, awaiting a fresh impetus for a sustained move above the $24 mark. Broad-based US dollar weakness seemingly benefits the white metal while from a short-term technical perspective, the bullion holds above a bunch of healthy support levels, as depicted by the hourly chart. The spot extends its range play while trading within a week-long symmetrical triangle formation, with a breakout expected on either side. However, the upside appears more compelling, as the price has recaptured all the critical Simple Moving Average on the said time frame.  The bulls now look to test the falling trendline resistance at $24.14. Acceptance above the latter would validate the triangle pattern, opening doors for a test of $24.50 levels. The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat but holds well above the midline, suggesting that there Is additional scope for gains. To the downside, strong support around $23.80 will likely limit the pullbacks. That zone is the confluence of the horizontal 21, 50 and 100-HMAs. Further south, the rising trendline support at $23.69 could be put to test. XAG/USD: Hourly chart XAG/USD: Additional levels  

GBP/USD refreshes session tops, above mid-1.2900s, as Monday's 4-hour chart is painting a moderately-bullish picture, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam re

GBP/USD refreshes session tops, above mid-1.2900s, as Monday's 4-hour chart is painting a moderately-bullish picture, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “GBP/USD is benefiting from upside momentum on the 4-hour chart and trading above the 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages. While it is pressured under the 200 SMA, the general picture is bullish.” “Some resistance awaits at 1.2975, last week's high, followed by 1.30 – a psychologically significant level which also capped GBP/USD during September. It is followed by 1.3050.” “Support is at the daily low of 1.29, followed by 1.2840, which was a swing low last week. Next, 1.28 is a strong support line, after separating ranges in late September.”  

On a one-month view the safe havens JPY, USD and CHF were the best performing G10 currencies before the news emerged about the knock to President Trum

On a one-month view the safe havens JPY, USD and CHF were the best performing G10 currencies before the news emerged about the knock to President Trump’s health. Given that the uncertainties surrounding next month’s US election have just ratcheted up a few notches, the prospects that safe-haven currencies included the USD will find solid support this quarter have strengthened, per Rabobank. Key quotes “News of the President’s positive test result has opened up a new set of uncertainties. If the President suffers significantly from virus, renewed caution about the virulence of the virus could weigh on consumer demand. This would further highlight the need for an increased fiscal response from Washington. Alternatively, if the President’s health stays relatively good, relief may lend some support to consumer confidence levels and potentially to his standing at the election.” “Polls are showing that this is an election in which the US electorate have become particularly engaged and even mainstream press have been reporting on the risk of civil unrest if neither side concedes defeat. This backdrop supported the move into safe-haven currencies in September and it is likely that this move will have further to run.” “Although the actions taken by the Federal Reserve since March to provide liquidity suggest that the USD is unlikely to be subjected to the sharp movements witnessed in March, we see scope for short-covering in the USD against a wide basket of currencies on a three-month view. We expect USD/JPY to hold around 105 on a one-to-three month view given the JPY safe-haven appeal.”    

The GBP/JPY cross refreshed daily tops during the early European session, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum beyond the 137.00

GBP/JPY regained traction on Monday and build on the previous day’s bounce from the 135.00 mark.The latest optimism over a possible Brexit deal continued lending some support to the British pound.The upbeat market mood undermined the Japanese yen and remained supportive of the strong move.The GBP/JPY cross refreshed daily tops during the early European session, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum beyond the 137.00 mark. The cross built on the previous session's goodish intraday bounce from the key 135.00 psychological mark and gained some strong follow-through traction on the first day of a new trading week. The British pound kicked off the new week on a positive note amid the latest optimism over a possible post-Brexit trade deal between the EU and UK. It is worth recalling that the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed in a phone call on Saturday to intensify Brexit talks to close significant gaps. Given the lack of progress in the latest round of Brexit negotiations, the development extended some support to the sterling. The sterling got an additional boost following the release of the UK Services PMI, which was finalized at 56.1 for September as against the 55.1 preliminary estimate. Adding to this, the prevalent upbeat market mood undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and further contributed to the GBP/JPY pair's strong intraday positive move. The global risk sentiment got a strong lift on the back of positive news about the US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus infection. Doctors said that Trump has responded well and could return to the White House on Monday, easing some of the political uncertainty that spooked investors and triggered the risk-off mood on Friday. From a technical perspective, a sustained move beyond the 137.00 mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move. The GBP/JPY cross might then surpass an intermediate resistance near the 137.55-60 region and aim towards reclaiming the 138.00 round-figure mark. Technical levels to watch  

WTI (futures on Nymex) reverses more than half the Friday’s sell-off, as the rebound gathers steam from three-week lows of $36.63 on Monday. The US oi

WTI lifted by Trump’s recovery news-led risk-on mood.Norwegian Equinor’s oilfields shutdown also boosts oil. All eyes remain on Trump’s health updates and market sentiment.WTI (futures on Nymex) reverses more than half the Friday’s sell-off, as the rebound gathers steam from three-week lows of $36.63 on Monday. The US oil trades above $38 mark, as we write, adding almost 3% so far. Oil buyers returned at the start of the week in tandem with risk appetite after investors cheered the improvement in US President Donald Trump’s health condition, citing his potential discharge from the hospital. Trump’s health progress eased political uncertainty in global markets and lifted the overall risk sentiment.  The market optimism diminished the safe-haven demand for the US dollar, in turn, benefiting the USD-denominated oil. Collaborating with the renewed upside in the black gold, the Norwegian energy giant, Equinor, announced a shutdown of its four major oil and gas fields due to an extension of the labor strike. Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG) reported, via Reuters, “the escalation could cut Norway’s petroleum production capacity by as much as 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) or 8% of total output.” However, it remains to be seen if the bounce holds up amid an increase in Libyan oil output and further developments concerning President Trump’s health. Also, a rise in the US oil rigs count also remains a cause for concerns for the oil bulls ahead of the weekly crude supply reports. WTI technical levels to watch “The daily chart shows the black gold has bounced from the head-and-shoulders neckline support at $36.70. A close below that level would confirm a bullish-to-bearish trend change and create room for a sell-off to $29.88 (target as per the measured move method),” FXStreet’s Analyst Omkar Godbole explained. WTI additional levels  

The GBP/USD pair reversed an early European session dip and rallied around 65 pips to refresh daily tops, around the 1.2965 region in the last hour. T

GBP/USD edged higher for the second consecutive session on Monday.The early uptick was sponsored by the emergence of fresh USD selling.The British pound got an additional boost from upbeat UK Services PMI.The GBP/USD pair reversed an early European session dip and rallied around 65 pips to refresh daily tops, around the 1.2965 region in the last hour. The pair attracted some dip-buying near the 1.2900 mark and moved back into the positive territory for the second consecutive session, also marking the fifth day of a move up in the previous six. As investors digested the latest Brexit-related developments, the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar extended some support to the GBP/USD pair. It is worth reporting that the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will hold talks with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed in a phone call on Saturday to step up negotiations on a post-Brexit deal. Given the lack of progress in the ninth round of Brexit negotiations, the efforts to close gaps extended some support to the British pound. On the other hand, the positive news about the US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus infection boosted investors' confidence and undermined the greenback's relative safe-haven status. Doctors said that Trump has responded well and could return to the White House on Monday, easing political uncertainty that spooked investors and triggered the risk-off mood on Friday. The sterling got an additional boost following the release of the UK Services PMI, which was finalized at 56.1 for September as against the 55.1 preliminary estimates. Despite the supporting factors, the GBP/USD pair lacked any strong follow-through buying and remained well below the key 1.3000 psychological mark, warranting some caution bullish traders. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The data, along with the broader market risk sentiment will influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Gold (XAU/USD) has retreated from the highs above $1,900 and trades just below that round number. All in all, the yellow metal is likely to stay suppo

Gold (XAU/USD) has retreated from the highs above $1,900 and trades just below that round number. All in all, the yellow metal is likely to stay supported until more clarity on Trump’s health condition emerges, per OCBC Bank. Key quotes “The rising uncertainty across the global economy lifted gold prices back to the $1900/oz level. We initially thought that since gold broke below that critical support level of $1900/oz, the precious metal would make a quick break for the $1800/oz level. The price movements last week, however, show that there remains buying interest at the $1800-$1900/oz level.” “We remain bullish in the long-term.”  

European Monetary Union Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (2.4%) in August: Actual (4.4%)

European Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 3.7%, above expectations (2.2%) in August

Italy's Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri said that he is confident that the European Union’s (EU) coronavirus recovery plan will come into force beg

Italy's Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri said that he is confident that the European Union’s (EU) coronavirus recovery plan will come into force beginning of 2021, in an interview state broadcaster Rai on Monday.   developing story ...

Investor confidence in the Eurozone improved more-than-expected in September, the latest data published by the Sentix research group showed on Monday.

Investor confidence in the Eurozone improved more-than-expected in September, the latest data published by the Sentix research group showed on Monday. The gauge came in at -8.3 in October from -8.0 in September vs. a reading of -9.8 expected.  more to come ... About Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, the Sentix Investor Confidence is a monthly survey that shows the market opinion about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next semester. The index, released by the Sentix GmbH, is composed by 36 different indicators. Usually, a higher reading is seen as positive for the Eurozone, which means positive, or bullish, for the Euro, while a lower number is seen negative or bearish for the unique currency.

The UK services sector activity expanded more-than-expected in September, the final report from IHS Markit confirmed this Monday. The seasonally adjus

UK Final Services PMI revised up to 56.1 in Sept.GBP/USD sustains the bounce around 1.2950 on the UK data.Broad USD weakness remains intact, focus shifts to US PMIs.The UK services sector activity expanded more-than-expected in September, the final report from IHS Markit confirmed this Monday.  The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised higher to 56.1 in September versus 55.0 expected and a 55.1 – September’s first reading.   more to come ...

European Monetary Union Sentix Investor Confidence above forecasts (-9.5) in October: Actual (-8.3)

United Kingdom Markit Services PMI registered at 56.1 above expectations (55) in September

The USD/CAD pair remained depressed through the early European session and dropped to two-week lows, around the 1.3265 region in the last hour. The pa

A combination of factors prompted some fresh selling around USD/CAD on Monday.The prevalent upbeat market mood drove flows away from the safe-haven greenback.Rallying oil prices underpinned the loonie and further contributed to the offered tone.The USD/CAD pair remained depressed through the early European session and dropped to two-week lows, around the 1.3265 region in the last hour. The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's modest gains and met with some fresh supply on the first day of a new week, marking the third day of a negative move in the previous four. The downtick was sponsored by a combination of factors, including a mildly weaker tone surrounding the US dollar and a goodish pickup in crude oil prices. Positive news about US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus infection boosted investors' confidence and triggered a fresh wave of the global risk-on trade. The upbeat market mood undermined the greenback's relative safe-haven status, which, in turn, was seen as one of the key factors exerting pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Trump's health update eased some of the political uncertainty helped offset concerns over risking oil supply in the market. Oil prices rallied around 3% for the day, which underpinned the commodity-linked currency – the loonie – and further contributed to the USD/CAD pair's downtick through the first half of the trading action on Monday. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. This, along with the broader market risk sentiment, might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some meaningful trading opportunities later during the early North American session. Technical levels to watch  

The S&P gained 1.5% last week but greater uncertainties could be problematic for the bulls this week and may struggle below 3,400s. Technically, the p

The S&P gained 1.5% last week but greater uncertainties could be problematic for the bulls this week and may struggle below 3,400s. Technically, the price is stalling within a rising bearish wedge formation, FXStreet’s Ross J. Burland reports. Key quotes “There was little evidence of panic in price action, perhaps as it is presumed the US President will recover fairly quickly and that his ballot will not be withdrawn from the forthcoming US elections on November 3rd.  However, there is still a tail-risk that Trump does not recover quickly and markets will be vulnerable to headlines throughout the next week or two.” “Prior to Trump's hospitalization, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seemed cautiously optimistic the two sides are working toward middle ground. If the two sides do somehow manage to reach an agreement, it could take a week or more before it comes up for a vote. On the other hand, if negotiations fail, with Trump's medical condition still under review, how likely is he to pursue unilateral action at this point? It is looking increasingly likely that talks may have to resume after the election but before the presidential inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021. US stocks are not going to like that.” “The price is above the 21 and 50 4-hour moving averages and bullish cross. So long as the price continues to respect the channel, there is an upside target in the 3,400s. On the downside, a break of the channel opens prospects for an extended breakout if the bears can clear support in the 3,200s.”  

Gold edged lower through the early European session and refreshed daily lows, around the $1887 region in the last hour. The precious metal witnessed s

A combination of factors prompted some fresh selling around the safe-haven commodity.Trump's improving health boosted the risk sentiment and weighed on safe-haven assets.Gold edged lower through the early European session and refreshed daily lows, around the $1887 region in the last hour. The precious metal witnessed some selling on the first day of a new trading week and extended the previous session's modest pullback from eight-day tops, around the $1917 region. The downtick was sponsored by the upbeat market mood, which tends to undermine demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including gold. The global risk sentiment got a strong lift on the back of positive news about the US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus infection. Doctors said that Trump has responded well and could return to the White House on Monday, easing some of the political uncertainty that spooked investors and triggered the risk-off mood on Friday. The risk-on flow – as depicted by firmer trading in the equity markets – was further reinforced by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, exerted some additional pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal. However, a subdued US dollar price action helped limit any deeper losses for the dollar-denominated commodity. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. This, along with the broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics, will assist traders to grab some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

European Monetary Union Markit PMI Composite above expectations (50.1) in September: Actual (50.4)

European Monetary Union Markit Services PMI above expectations (47.6) in September: Actual (48)

Germany Markit Services PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (49.1) in September

Germany Markit PMI Composite registered at 54.7 above expectations (53.7) in September

France Markit PMI Composite in line with forecasts (48.5) in September

France Markit Services PMI meets expectations (47.5) in September

Italy Markit Services PMI above forecasts (46.6) in September: Actual (48.8)

Markets tend to get ahead of themselves and could rise in the hopes that Trump leaves the hospital. However, there are reasons to be cautious about th

Markets tend to get ahead of themselves and could rise in the hopes that Trump leaves the hospital. However, there are reasons to be cautious about the president's condition, and if he stays for a few more days, it would disappoint investors and send stocks down, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “First, the doctors seemed evasive when talking about Trump's lung scans. Has he developed pneumonia? Hopefully, the answer is no, but the lack of transparency is worrying.”  “Second, Dr. Sean Conley, the president's doctor, finally acknowledged that Trump received oxygen – on Saturday he only insisted that the president is not on oxygen right now. That also casts doubts about his condition. Late on Saturday, Trump released a video of himself from the hospital to lay these concerns to rest. Another spell of oxygen cannot be ruled out.” “Third, Trump is receiving significant medications, including dexamethasone, a steroid that the Center for Disease Control (CDC) recommends administering to patients with ‘severe and critical COVID-19.’ While medics may be trying to throw everything at Patient Number One, the usage of steroids – which also suppress fever – can be worrying.”  “Fourth, according to Dr. Conley, days 7-10 are the most critical ones and Trump could only be in days 5-8 – depending on when he was infected. He was initially taken to the hospital on Friday due to an ‘abundance of precaution’ and keeping him a few more days would seem only seem to be the minimum.”  

The USD/CAD pair awaits a change in circumstances after the Canadian dollar gained 0.6% last week but weakness may be a temporary condition, in the op

The USD/CAD pair awaits a change in circumstances after the Canadian dollar gained 0.6% last week but weakness may be a temporary condition, in the opinion of FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani. A number of factors, economic and political, are competing for attention. Key quotes “In Europe, the UK and parts of the United States COVID-19 cases are again rising but the numbers and the potential for reimposing economic restrictions have not brought on a safety surge to the US dollar.   American economic statistics have generally been good but the linchpin of the labor economy seems to be weakening and with the stimulus blocked so far in Congress the continuation of the recovery is increasingly doubtful. Canada’s resource-dependent economy needs a global recovery and a rise in commodity prices to thrive but neither is on the horizon.” “Until the economic picture becomes clear neither side of the USD/CAD will be able to secure precedence. The US presidential election was dramatically upended by the COVID-19 of President Trump and several top Republican legislators.  In the febrile and emotional atmosphere of the campaign, the political impact may depend on the progress of the illness in one individual, the President, which makes its uncertainty immeasurably greater.” “Given the indecision in economic and political fundamentals, technical aspects take on greater significance. Support at 1.3265, 1.3200 and 1.3145 and 1.3050 is well established with a basis in August and September and the nine months from July 2019 to February this year.” “Resistance levels at 1.3400 and 1.3500 have a lesser pedigree as they stem from pricing during the pandemic volatility and the first half of 2019.”  “On balance, the reversal of the September move to 1.3000 and the much more solid support below the current levels tilt the bias in the USD/CAD mildly higher especially when backed by the incipient US dollar safety trade and the weakness in commodities.”  

The AUD/USD pair surrendered a major part of its Asian session positive move and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily range, around

AUD/USD regained positive traction on Monday amid a rebound in the equity markets.The intraday uptick ran out of the steam ahead of the 0.7200 mark, warranting caution.The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI eyed for some impetus ahead of RBA on Tuesday.The AUD/USD pair surrendered a major part of its Asian session positive move and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily range, around the 0.7165-70 region. The pair caught some fresh bids on the first day of a new trading week and recovered the previous day's modest losses amid a strong rebound in the equity markets. Positive news about Trump’s coronavirus infection boosted investors' confidence, which undermined the US dollar's safe-haven status and benefitted the perceived riskier Australian dollar. The uptick, however, lacked any strong follow-through buying and ran out of the steam ahead of the 0.7200 round-figure mark. A goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, coupled with the US political uncertainty ahead of the presidential election on November 3rd helped limit any deeper losses for the greenback and capped gains for the AUD/USD pair. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US macro data for some impetus later during the early North American session. Monday's US economic docket highlights the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities. Investors also await the upcoming vice president presidential debate on Wednesday. In the meantime, the broader market risk sentiment will continue to play a key role in driving the AUD/USD pair ahead of the latest RBA monetary policy update, scheduled to be announced during the Asian session on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch 

The GBP/USD pair lifted above 1.2900 on headlines that the UK and EU will persist with Brexit negotiations, adding to background optimism that a deal

The GBP/USD pair lifted above 1.2900 on headlines that the UK and EU will persist with Brexit negotiations, adding to background optimism that a deal can be reached at the eleventh hour. Nonetheless, Terence Wu from OCBC Bank expects the cable to be capped by the 1.30 mark. Key quotes “Rhetoric from the negotiators on both sides were nowhere near optimistic, although intervention from EC President von der Leyen and PM Johnson kept the talks going. The fact that the talks would continue was enough to suppor the GBP. Nevertheless, given the lack of material progress, we still see the 1.2950-1.3000 range as a cap for now. Prefer to sell on rallies towards those levels” “Support level around the 1.2850 area should limit dips, with 1.3000 capping at the topside.”  

Spain Markit Services PMI came in at 42.4 below forecasts (46.3) in September

EUR/USD has been attempting to bounce amid hopes that Trump leaves the hospital. The greenback may rise if the president does not return to the White

EUR/USD has been attempting to bounce amid hopes that Trump leaves the hospital. The greenback may rise if the president does not return to the White House, yet fiscal stimulus hopes could balance the picture, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam.  Key quotes “Doctors have been scrutinizing the official data and are perplexed. Dr. Sean Conley, the president's personal doctor, said that Trump has been given dexamethasone – a steroid that has proved useful for serious coronavirus cases. If the president is doing well, why would he need that treatment? And if doctors are throwing the kitchen sink at Patient No. 1, dexamethasone could do harm. In general, steroids suppress fever and also cause an upbeat feeling, sometimes reaching euphoric levels. That could explain Trump's positive video message and his drive-by to greet supporters. Entering an SUV, even with a mask, put his staff at risk of contracting the virus.” “The good news coming from the hospital is that Trump spoke with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell about the fiscal stimulus bill. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed hopes of striking a deal on Friday, helping stocks recover from the shock of hearing about Trump's positive coronavirus test. If both sides release optimistic assessments, the greenback could fall.” “While the world is closely watching Trump's coronavirus case, infections in Europe continue rising and somewhat limit the common currency's gains. The Spanish capital Madrid – Europe's hardest-hit city – was put under lockdown while the Paris region's alert level was raised to a maximum. COVID-19 cases are also rising Germany, the continent's largest economy.”   

The AUD/USD pair recovered some ground last week, as the greenback remained out of the market’s favor. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

The AUD/USD pair recovered some ground last week, as the greenback remained out of the market’s favor. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is having a monetary policy meeting but will probably be a non-event while the aussie is set to retain its bullish long-term potential, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports. Key quotes “The upcoming week will be a busy one in Australia, as the country will publish updates on services output and inflation.  On Tuesday, the RBA will meet to decide on the economic policy, although the market is heading into the event without expectations, as central banks have made it clear that it’s time for wait-and-see. China will be on holidays for most of the week, which means there’s not much to take care off.” “As for the US, the focus will be on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, to be out next Wednesday. Expectations for this event are also limited. Instead, the attention will remain on Trump’s health, and whether the US Congress is able or not to clinch a deal.” “The weekly chart for the AUD/USD pair indicates that the pair has recovered its bullish potential. The pair has bounced from a bullish 20 SMA, which maintains its bullish slope above the 100 SMA. So far, the pair was unable to recover beyond a mildly bearish 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, seem to have completed their corrective decline within positive levels, now turning higher.” “The aussie’s bias will continue to depend on the market’s sentiment. As long as it holds above the 0.7000 figures, the bearish potential will remain limited, while a break below it exposes 0.6920. Once below this last, the next relevant level to watch is 0.6840. Resistances are located at 0.7200, and 0.7250, with gains above this last favoring an extension towards 0.7345.”

It would be irresponsible to cause further problems for the European Union (EU) and the UK with no-deal Brexit, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas sai

It would be irresponsible to cause further problems for the European Union (EU) and the UK with no-deal Brexit, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Monday. “We must make quick progress in all open questions,” he added. His comments come after the UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen approved a further month of Brexit negotiations, in the last push to reach a deal on trade and security.Market reaction The pound seems to be weighed down by the above comments, as GBP/USD slips to fresh session lows of 1.2904, down 0.20% so far.COVID-19 and no-deal Brexit could cost UK GBP134 B a year – Baker & McKenzie

Turkey Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 2.35% to 2.65% in September

Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (12.13%) in September: Actual (11.75%)

Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.97%, below expectations (1.35%) in September

Turkey Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to 14.33% in September from previous 11.53%

Optimism on Brexit with pessimism on fiscal talks – or the other way around – is what moved GBP/USD, and will likely continue moving forward. Brexit,

Optimism on Brexit with pessimism on fiscal talks – or the other way around – is what moved GBP/USD, and will likely continue moving forward. Brexit, the Fed minutes, UK GDP and US politics are all eyed this week, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “If PM Boris Johnson allows for a compromise on state aid, the controversial IMB, or any other topic, the pound could rally strongly. On the other hand, that IMB violates the concessions he made in 2019 regarding the status of Northern Ireland.” “As temperatures fall and people spend more time inside, UK COVID-19 could rise  – and with them depressed activity from consumers and potentially additional restrictions. After several days of infection records, the daily statistics figures may have a growing impact on sterling.” “The economic calendar features two speeches from Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England. The influential central banker has been relatively upbeat of late. In his second speech on Friday, he may respond to new GDP figures for August. Markets expected an ongoing recovery in the summer, with an increase of 5.7% in output after 6.6% in July. Manufacturing production figures are also of interest.” “The more immediate concern for investors is the fate of the stimulus bill. Will elderly elected officials practice social distancing and leave Washington without a deal? Or is the focus on the disease going to sharpen minds and push politicians toward approving more relief? Markets will not have to wait for too long to receive answers on that front.”  “After the last pre-election NFP, the focus shifts from economic data to the Federal Reserve. The bank's meeting minutes from its last pre-election rate decision will likely reiterate the pledge to keep borrowing costs depressed for several years. Regarding bond-buying, officials seemed reluctant to increase its pace, urging politicians to act. The document may shed light on the Fed's potential to make a move on that topic anytime soon.”  

EUR/CHF has eroded its four-month uptrend at 1.0773 and needs to hold above the recent 1.0712 low to maintain chances of a recovery toward the 1.0850

EUR/CHF has eroded its four-month uptrend at 1.0773 and needs to hold above the recent 1.0712 low to maintain chances of a recovery toward the 1.0850 region, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, informs. Key quotes “EUR/CHF has eroded the foru-month uptrend and this has neutralised the immediate outlook. Directly below we have the July, August and September lows down to 1.0712. These will need to hold for scope for recovery to the 1.0850/60 region, this is long-term Fibonacci resistance.”  “A close above 1.0860 and preferably above the 1.0877 recent high is needed to target the 1.0915 June high and the 1.1058 October 2019 high.” “We note that the DMI has turned negative for the first time since April and the 1.0722/12 supports are therefore exposed. Below 1.0712 lies the 1.0607 10th July low.”  

The main market motor last week was the risk-related sentiment, centred around a US stimulus bill and a post-Brexit trade deal. The cherry on the cake

The main market motor last week was the risk-related sentiment, centred around a US stimulus bill and a post-Brexit trade deal. The cherry on the cake was the announcement on Friday that US President Donald Trump and wife Melania contracted COVID-19. The EUR/USD pair bottomed for the week at 1.1614 and headed into the weekend trading at around 1.1720. The shy recovery cannot grant additional gains ahead, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik briefs. Key quotes “Trump’s health took over the news feeds, overshadowing a dismal US Nonfarm Payroll report. According to the official release, the US added 661K new jobs in September, much worse than the 850K expected. The unemployment rate in the same period ticked down to 7.9% from 8.4%, beating the 8.2% expected.” “Expectations mounted ahead of the first US presidential debate between Trump and Biden, providing little of substance to investors. It was a spat which didn’t lack mockery and interruptions. The only thing worth highlighting is that Trump refused to say that he would accept the election results, as he has repeatedly been saying that mail-in ballots will lead to a rigged election.” “ECB’s President Christine Lagarde mounted on the verbal intervention train, as she said that ‘it is clear that the external value of the euro has an impact on inflation.’ Lagarde paved the way for more stimulus, indicating that the central bank stands ‘ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry’.” “This week kick-starts with the final versions of the September Markit Services PMIs for the EU and the US, and the official ISM Services PMI for this last, foreseen at 56 from 56.9 in the previous month. Next Wednesday, the FOMC will publish the Minutes of its latest meeting. The document has little chances of having a relevant impact on the market.”  

The Japanese economy in severe condition but picking up. Uncertainties surrounding the outlook remain extremely high. The economy likely to improve as

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda sounded pessimistic about the outlook on Japan’s economy and inflation while speaking in an online conference this Monday. Key quotes “Japanese economy in severe condition but picking up.” “Uncertainties surrounding the outlook remain extremely high.” “Economy likely to improve as a trend but the pace of the recovery remains moderate.” “Risks are to the downside on the economy, inflation.”

USD/JPY Monday’s open at 105.61 and Friday’s end at 105.38 evidence the lack of overall direction. The reigning down-channel continues to order tradin

USD/JPY Monday’s open at 105.61 and Friday’s end at 105.38 evidence the lack of overall direction. The reigning down-channel continues to order trading whereas risk-off is the predominant sentiment, Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, reports. Key quotes “The upper border of the inner channel descends from 105.80 to about 105.50 next week so even a sideways motion in the USD/JPY will, by Thursday or Friday bring it into contact. As we saw this week the likely response in the USD/JPY at that point is lower.” “There is minor support at 104.60 but its position in the middle of the channel means that a move through has little overall import. Above the market the first resistance is at 106.00 followed by 106.50. A rise to these levels would not negate the incline as the wider channel which has its origin in the March panic would remain in place.” “The downtrend in the USD/JPY is not a strong move based on economic or rate differentials but is the prevailing notion largely due to the lack of any alternative. A rousing recovery in the US economy would make short work of the weaker dollar but that has yet to arrive.”  

EUR/USD is off the highs but remains better bid above 1.1700, as the US dollar remains on the back foot amid the upbeat market mood. The optimism over

EUR/USD bulls await fresh impetus for the next leg up.Falling wedge breakout confirmed on the hourly chart.EUR bulls struggling to extend gains above 50-HMA. EUR/USD is off the highs but remains better bid above 1.1700, as the US dollar remains on the back foot amid the upbeat market mood. The optimism over US President Donald Trump’s potential discharge from the medical center boosts the appetite for the risk assets at the expense of the safe-haven greenback. From a near-term technical perspective, the bulls are catching a breath following a nearly 30-pips bounce from daily lows of 1.1709, courtesy of the falling wedge breakout confirmed on the hourly chart. Despite the bullish breakout, the spot is struggling to extend the rise above the horizontal 50-hourly Simple Moving Average (HMA) at 1.1730. A sustained move above the latter could open doors once again towards the pattern target of 1.1793. However, the October 1 high of 1.1770 could test the bulls’ commitment en route the aforesaid pattern target. The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south at 51.94, suggesting that the bullish momentum could weaken in the coming hours. The immediate downside could be capped around 1.1725/20, which is the confluence of the 21 and 100-HMAs. On a failure to resist above the latter, sellers could target the pattern resistance now support at 1.1710. The horizontal critical 200-HMA support at 1.1692 is the level to beat for the EUR bears. EUR/USD: Hourly chart EUR/USD: Additional levels  

Gold (XAU/USD) has retreated from the highs above $1,900 and trades just below that round number. The yellow metal’s fate hinges on Trump’s health whi

Gold (XAU/USD) has retreated from the highs above $1,900 and trades just below that round number. The yellow metal’s fate hinges on Trump’s health while the 21-DMA at $1915 is the level to beat for bulls, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. Key quotes “The price action in gold will likely depend on the fresh updates concerning Trump’s health, especially after some of the medical experts noted that the president’s condition may be more severe, given fluctuating oxygen levels and a steroid drug treatment. The safe-haven dollar could regain poise and knockdown gold should Trump’s condition deteriorate. In contrast, gold could extend the bounce in case of early discharge from the hospital.” “Gold’s upside attempts likely to remain capped while it trades below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (DMA) at $1915. Meanwhile, to the downside, the upward-sloping 100-DMA at $1856 could continue to offer support, leaving the prices in a narrow range.”

A post-Brexit transition trade deal is likely to be reached by early November although a breakdown in negotiations cannot be ruled out, said the Goldm

A post-Brexit transition trade deal is likely to be reached by early November although a breakdown in negotiations cannot be ruled out, said the Goldman Sachs analysts in the latest client note. Key quotes "Our core view remains that a “thin” zero-tariff/zero-quota trade agreement will likely be struck by early November, and subsequently ratified by the end of December." "The risk of a breakdown in negotiations cannot be ruled out.” "We continue to think the perceived probability of 'no deal' will persist beyond the next European Council meeting in mid-October."

US Dollar Index (DXY) stays on the back foot around 93.70, down 0.11% intraday, during the pre-European open on Monday. In doing so, the greenback gau

DXY prints mild losses following failures to extend Friday’s recovery moves beyond 93.82.Sustained trading below short-term EMA confluence, weak MACD histogram favor sellers.Two-week-old ascending trend line, followed by monthly support line, probes the bears.US Dollar Index (DXY) stays on the back foot around 93.70, down 0.11% intraday, during the pre-European open on Monday. In doing so, the greenback gauge fails to keep Friday’s gains amid dwindling MACD histogram. Even so, a confluence of 100-bar EMA and an ascending trend line from September 21, around 93.70, restricts the quote’s immediate downside. If at all the sellers retake controls below 93.70, they need to conquer a five-week-old rising support line, at 93.47 now, to prove themselves. Meanwhile, buyers aren’t expected to enter unless witnessing a clear break above 93.87 comprising 21-bar and 50-bar EMA. Following that, the 94.00 threshold and a horizontal line comprising late September top near 94.20 will be on the bulls’ radars. DXY four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Russia Purchasing Manager Index Services dipped from previous 58.2 to 53.7 in September

Russia Purchasing Manager Index Services dipped from previous 58.2 to 55.7 in September

There should be no hike taxes during the coronavirus pandemic, said the German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in a statement on Monday. more to come

There should be no hike taxes during the coronavirus pandemic, said the German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in a statement on Monday.  more to come ...

USD/JPY extends late-Friday’s bounce off 104.94 towards the key SMA resistance. A sustained trend line breakout, normal RSI favor the bulls. 61.8% of

USD/JPY extends late-Friday’s bounce off 104.94 towards the key SMA resistance.A sustained trend line breakout, normal RSI favor the bulls.61.8% of Fibonacci retracement offers extra filter to the north.Broad support on the downside below 105.00 can probe the bears.USD/JPY rises to 105.57, up 0.24% intraday, while heading into the European open on Monday. In doing so, the pair keeps its upside break of a falling trend line from August 28 amid normal RSI conditions. As a result, bulls are geared towards a 200-bar SMA level of 105.67 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of August 28 to September 21 downside, around 105.85, during the further upside. During the USD/JPY bulls’ further dominance past-105.85, multiple resistances can probe the upside below 106.30, a break of which will attack the previous month’s peak surrounding 106.55. Alternatively, the resistance-turned-into-support trend line around 105.20 and the 105.00 threshold offer immediate support during the quote’s U-turn. Though, USD/JPY sellers will be hard to convince unless breaking a broad support area between 104.95 and 104.85 including multiple levels marked since mid-September. USD/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

FX option expiries for Oct 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1700 1.1bn 1.1730 760m 1.1870 843m -

FX option expiries for Oct 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1700 1.1bn 1.1730 760m 1.1870 843m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          104.05 360m 104.50 450m 105.00 1.3bn 105.80 461m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7160 535m 0.7230 628m

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 5: Markets are rising and the safe-haven dollar is down on hopes that President Trump may leave the h

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 5:  Markets are rising and the safe-haven dollar is down on hopes that President Trump may leave the hospital shortly. Speculation about his condition, headlines related to fiscal stimulus talks, and the ISM Services PMI are set to rock markets. President Donald Trump's doctors painted an upbeat picture on Sunday, saying the Commander-In-Chief is improving. Trump later released a video and did a short drive-by, waving to supporters outside the Walter Reed hospital. However, the physicians also revealed that the president is receiving an aggressive treatment reserved for severe coronavirus cases, raising doubts about his health. Trump's doctor Sean Conley was forced to clarify some of the comments he made on Saturday regarding oxygen support.  See Stocks to surge on Trump's discharge hopes, four reasons why a crash may followFiscal stimulus: Trump spoke with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell over the weekend over the fiscal stimulus deal. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Friday that chances of a deal have risen. The latest reports suggest Republicans are willing to allocate around $1.5 trillion while Democrats want a relief package worth $2.2 trillion. Before Trump's disease, markets moved more on the odds for stimulus than from politics. Trump's rival Joe Biden continues leading in national in state polls. Brexit: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke over the weekend and agreed to extend talks on future relations. The pound is rising, yet remains hesitant due to the lack of details on a breakthrough. The EU took legal action against the UK last week.The US economy gained 661,000 positions in September, worse than expected, and the Unemployment Rate fell to 7.9%, exceeding estimates. The last Non-Farm Payrolls statistics ahead of the elections were drowned by the news of Trump's illness.  See US Non-farm Payrolls September Report:  The two-tier economyThe ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index is set to show an ongoing recovery in America's largest sector. Markit's final Services PMI is also of interest. Coronavirus cases continue rising in Europe. Spain's capital Madrid is the hardest-hit area in the old continent and has gone into lockdown. The French capital Paris raised its alert level to the maximum and restrictions are also under consideration in Ireland. Eurozone services PMI and the Sentix Investor Confidence are eyed. Gold has retreated from the highs above $1,900 and trades just below that round number. Oil prices have failed to recover the losses incurred on Friday and remain sensitive to politics. Cryptocurrencies have been trading within a range, with Bitcoin changing hands above $10,600.  More Who will be the next president? Markets seem to care more about Congress' actions (for now)

Japan’s output gap, which measures the difference between an economy’s actual and potential output, slumped 4.83% in the second quarter, a Bank of Jap

Japan’s output gap, which measures the difference between an economy’s actual and potential output, slumped 4.83% in the second quarter, a Bank of Japan (BOJ) estimate showed on Monday.  The output gap fell into negative territory for the first time since 2016.    more to come ...

Asian shares take the bids as bears step back following updates suggesting a recovery in US President Trump’s health after contracting the coronavirus

Asia-Pacific equities benefit from US President Donald Trump’s health recovery, stimulus hopes.Australia announced fresh spending ahead of Tuesday’s budget, zero community transmission in SA, NSW and Queensland.China enjoys the Golden Week, light calendar keeps eyes on virus headlines from America.Asian shares take the bids as bears step back following updates suggesting a recovery in US President Trump’s health after contracting the coronavirus (COVID-19) on Friday. The market’s mood also benefited from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s hint of nearness to breaking the stimulus deadlock. Furthermore, one more push for the Brexit deal by the UK and European officials are additional reasons for the markets to remain upbeat. While portraying the sentiment, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rises 0.85% whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises over 1.20% to 23,310 ahead of Monday’s European session. Australia’s ASX 200 marks the biggest daily advances in over two weeks as the Aussie government announced a A$7.5 billion boost for infrastructure spending while also stretching the debt ceiling for budget, expected tomorrow. Further to boost the Aussie players were the stage of COVID-19 in the key regions like South Australia (SA), New South Wales and Queensland where no community transmissions have been rolling out for the last few days. It’s worth mentioning that upbeat prints of Commonwealth Bank PMIs and National Australia Bank’s business sentiment data added to the Aussie bulls’ strength. Elsewhere, New Zealand’s NZX 50 benefits from easing of lockdown restrictions by Jacinda Ardern and the company. Further, Hong Kong’s Hang Sang, Indonesia’s IDX Composite and India’s BSE Sensex are additional proofs of the market optimism while South Korea’s KOSPI adds 1.35% following upbeat PMI data for September. Although concerns about US President Trump’s health will be the key, Tuesday’s RBA interest rate and budget release will be the key for Asia-Pacific traders amid a lack of major data/events anywhere else. It should, additionally, be noted that US ISM Services PMI and updates relating to the Brexit, American aid package will act as additional hints for market direction. Also read: S&P 500 Futures cheer US Pres. Trump’s coronavirus recovery news

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and a no-deal Brexit with the European Union (EU) could cost the UK’s GDP around GBP134 billion ($174 billion)

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and a no-deal Brexit with the European Union (EU) could cost the UK’s GDP around GBP134 billion ($174 billion) each year for a decade, noted a law firm, Baker & McKenzie, in a research report titled "The Future of UK Trade: Merged Realities of Brexit and COVID-19." Key takeaways “The COVID-19 outbreak will cut Britain's GDP by 2.2% below the levels anticipated before the outbreak.” “Brexit, even with a trade deal, would cut GDP by 3.1% in the long-run relative to a hypothetical scenario where the UK remained in the EU, while exports of goods would be 6.3% lower. Without a trade deal, the cost of Brexit would increase to 3.9% of GDP in the long run.” "Despite businesses taking steps to offset the added costs of Brexit by reconfiguring supply chains, the decline in export revenues for UK manufacturers will be substantial.” Related reads GBP/USD holds above 1.2900 amid Brexit optimism, Trump’s recovery EUR/GBP Price Analysis: 200-bar SMA challenges Dragonfly Doji on 4-hour chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure once again below $1900 after a brief recovery attempt above the latter in early trades this Monday. The optimism over

Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure once again below $1900 after a brief recovery attempt above the latter in early trades this Monday. The optimism over US President Donald Trump’s health progress seems to fade amid looming uncertainty over the fiscal stimulus deal and upcoming election. Despite the US Markit and ISM Services PMI reports, the focus will remain on Trump’s health updates and the resultant impact on the global markets. Technically, let’s take a look at how gold is positioned? Gold: Key resistances and supports The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that Gold remains trapped between key barriers, with stiff resistance seen around $1901, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week. The next powerful resistance is aligned at $1905, the intersection of the previous high on four-hour and Fibonacci 38.2% one-month. Acceptance above the latter is critical to extending the recovery towards $1910, the Bollinger Band one-hour Upper. Meanwhile, the spot is testing the support at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week of $1891, below which the SMA10 on one-day will challenge the bears’ commitment. Further south, $1883 will get tested, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month lies. A break below the latter could trigger a quick drop towards the next downside target of $1875, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week. Here is how it looks on the tool   About Confluence Detector The TCI (Technical Confluences Indicator) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.Learn more about Technical Confluence

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -8.5% to -5.7% in August

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): 1.4% (August) vs previous 27.4%

EUR/GBP rises to 0.9067, up 0.07% intraday, ahead of Monday’s European session. The pair recently flashed a Dragonfly Doji, a bullish candlestick, on

EUR/GBP picks up bids above 0.9050 following a bullish candlestick formation.Three-day-old falling trend line adds to the upside barrier beyond the key SMA.Sellers will wait for a downside break below 0.9043.EUR/GBP rises to 0.9067, up 0.07% intraday, ahead of Monday’s European session. The pair recently flashed a Dragonfly Doji, a bullish candlestick, on the four-hour chart. However, 200-bar SMA and a falling trend line from Thursday probe the buyers amid bearish MACD. Not only a 200-bar SMA level of 0.9065 and the mentioned trend line resistance of 0.9080 but a descending trend line from September 23, around 0.9135, will also challenge the pair buyers. Furthermore, a confluence of 100-bar SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s September 22-28 downside close to 0.9145/50 offers an additional upside barrier to the EUR/GBP advances. Alternatively, the bears will wait for a fresh low of the month, below 0.9043, to take fresh entries. In doing so, the late September low of 0.9025 and the 0.90000 psychological magnet can please add filters during the quote’s downside. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s declines below 0.9000 will aim for the early-August bottom surrounding 0.8970. EUR/BP four-hour chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

GBP/USD drops to 1.2938, down 0.05% intraday, while heading into the London open on Monday. The Cable earlier surged to the exact high of 1.2954 flash

GBP/USD trims early-day gains after touching Friday’s top of 1.2954.Fears of harsher lockdown in England, downbeat comments from UK Chancellor Sunak favor bears.Two more rounds of Brexit talks will be held as a final kick to avoid no-deal departure.US President Donald Trump sounds upbeat in the latest video, concerns over dexamethasone usage challenge bulls.GBP/USD drops to 1.2938, down 0.05% intraday, while heading into the London open on Monday. The Cable earlier surged to the exact high of 1.2954 flashed the previous day. However, fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and downside impacts of the same, as conveyed by the UK’s Chancellor Rishi Sunak, seems to weigh on the quote. With this, traders seem to ignore recovery in US President Donald Trump’s health from the COVID-19 as well as the recent meeting between British PM Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that agreed to stretch Brexit talks by one more month. Although UK PM Johnson said he “can live with no-deal Brexit”, the Tory leader agreed to have one final push to avoid a bitter departure from the European Union (EU). As a result, the bloc’s negotiators will visit London this week before the British counterparts visit Brussels ahead of the October 15-16 EU summit. At the end of the final scheduled departure negotiations in Brussels, completed last week, policymakers from the EU and the UK both cited 'significant gaps' over the trade deal. Elsewhere, The Guardian came out with the news, relying on a leaked government paper, to mention about possibilities of a three-way lockdown in England. Following that, the British Finance Minister Sunak crossed wires, via The Sun, to convey possible economic and social costs of lockdowns. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump is recovering from the COVID-19 infection and shared a video, coupled with a short drive outside Walter Reed, to prove the same. However, the usage of a drug linked to steroid dosage worries traders about the issue of the US leader at a time when Presidential Election is a month away and stimulus deadlock looms. Amid all these plays, S&P 500 Futures gain over half a percent whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific remain mostly up. Looking forward, comments from the BOE’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane and the final reading of September month’s UK Services PMI, expected to rise to 60.1 from 55.1, can offer immediate direction to GBP/USD. Also on the economic calendar is the US ISM Services PMI for September, forecast 56.00 versus 56.9 prior. However, major attention will be given to US President Trump’s health for near-term market moves. Technical analysis The pair marks another day below a descending trend line stretched from September 09, at 1.2965 now, which in turn suggests further weakness towards testing the 21-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of June-September upside, close to 1.2870.  

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions: 0 vs -6

While risk reset is pushing EUR/USD higher on Monday, significant gains may remain elusive, courtesy of expectations for additional European Central B

EUR/USD buoyant as President Trump's health news fuels a risk reset. Trump’s coronavirus treatment suggests severe coronavirus conditions. Negative Eurozone inflation and ECB's easing bias could cap gains. While risk reset is pushing EUR/USD higher on Monday, significant gains may remain elusive, courtesy of expectations for additional European Central Bank (ECB) easing.  EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.1730, representing a 0.15% gain on the day.  The pair picked up a bid at 1.1706 in Asia as the S&P 500 futures jumped on optimism generated by President Trump's doctors' comments that he could be discharged from the coronavirus hospital as soon as Monday.  However, the decline in political uncertainty could be premature. That's because many of the measures cited by Trump's medical reports like fluctuating oxygen levels and a decision to begin treatment with a steroid drug are reserved for severely coronavirus patients.  Besides, the pressure on the ECB to do more easing is mounting due to weak Eurozone inflation. As represented by the consumer price index, the cost of living in the common currency area fell deeper into the negative territory last month.  According to Reuters, "more stimulus is increasingly likely in December. The ECB is expected then to extend and expand its 1.35 trillion-euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, used to soak up government and corporate debt to keep borrowing costs down." Technical levels "The euro needs to rise above the September down trendline that begins the next week near $1.1775, and the $1.1810 (50%) retracement hurdle to lift the tone and boost confidence that a low is in place," Marc Chandler, a Chief Strategist at Bannockburn Markets, noted in his blog Marc to Market.   

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence increased to -4 from previous -8

NZD/USD seesaws near the intraday high of 0.6655, currently around 0.6650, during the early Monday. The kiwi pair rises for the second consecutive day

NZD/USD trades beyond 50-day SMA for the first time in two weeks.MACD trims bearish bias but 21-day SMA holds the key to further upside.100-day SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement acts as strong support.NZD/USD seesaws near the intraday high of 0.6655, currently around 0.6650, during the early Monday. The kiwi pair rises for the second consecutive day while keeping its upside break of 50-day SMA. However, 21-day SMA restricts the quote’s immediate upside. Considering the normal RSI conditions and a receding bearish bias of the MACD, the bulls are likely to cross the 21-day SMA hurdle, at 0.6650 now, this time. As a result, NZD/USD buyers can aim for July high near 0.6715 during the further upside whereas 0.67580/85 and the September month’s high close to 0.6800 may flash on their radars afterward. On the downside, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s mid-June to September 18 upside, coupled with the 50-day SMA, offers immediate support around 0.6635. While a downside break of 0.6635 will quickly drag NZD/USD towards a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6590, any further weakness will be tamed by a confluence of 100-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.6540. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

One-month risk reversals on USD/JPY, a gauge of calls to puts, fell to over two-month low of -1.65 on Monday, indicating investors are adding bets (pu

One-month risk reversals on USD/JPY, a gauge of calls to puts, fell to over two-month low of -1.65 on Monday, indicating investors are adding bets (puts) to position for strength in the Japanese yen.  Risk reversals peaked at -1.125 on Sept. 30, according to data source Reuters.  The currency pair is currently trading at 105.54, representing a 0.22% gain on the day.   

GBP/JPY proved resistance at 136.73 a few minutes before press time. That level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from the Sept. 1 hi

GBP/JPY runs into confluence of a Fibonacci and 200-day SMA hurdles. A close higher could invite more substantial chart-driven buying. GBP/JPY proved resistance at 136.73 a few minutes before press time. That level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from the Sept. 1 high of 142.72 to the Sept. 22 low of 133.04.  Notably, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is located at 136.68 – just below the critical Fibonacci retracement.  A close above these levels would validate the daily chart MACD histogram's bullish or above-zero reading, the ascending 5- and 10-day SMAs, and could fuel a stronger rise to 138.25 (Aug. 21 low).  Bulls, however, failed to keep gains above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on Oct. 1. Another failure will likely see the market re-test dip demand by revisiting the 10-day SMA at 135.23.  Daily chartTrend: bullish above 136.73 Technical levels  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the North American oil benchmark, is flashing green at press time, as the US dollar is facing selling pressure. The hav

Trump's health progress pushes greenback lower and powers gains in WTI. Oil's rise has saved the day for the bulls, according to technical charts. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the North American oil benchmark, is flashing green at press time, as the US dollar is facing selling pressure.   The haven demand for the greenback looks to have weakened in response to President Trump's doctors' comments that he could be discharged from coronavirus hospital as soon as Monday.   A barrel of WTI is currently trading at $37.84, representing a 1.9% gain on the day. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's value against majors, is down over 0.10% at 93.70.  Trump's health update has eased political uncertainty and is pushing the higher. The S&P 500 futures are now up more than 0.6% on the day.  As such, the anti-risk greenback is losing ground, and making dollar-denominated commodities like oil look attractive. Stocks came under pressure in the second half of last week after Trump said he and the first lady have tested positive for coronavirus. The dollar rallied on Friday, snapping a four-day losing trend and pushing oil down by 4.3%.  However, market optimism about Trump's health could be premature. That's because Trump's fluctuating oxygen levels and a steroid drug treatment suggest that the President is suffering a more severe case of Covid-19. For now, the risk reset has saved the day for oil bulls. The daily chart shows the black gold has bounced from the head-and-shoulders neckline support at $36.70.  A close below that level would confirm a bullish-to-bearish trend change and create room for a sell-off to $29.88 (target as per the measured move method).  Daily chart Technical levels  

Australian Deputy Prime Minister (PM) Michael McCormack is set to announce a further $7.5 billion in new transport infrastructure spending in Tuesday’

Australian Deputy Prime Minister (PM) Michael McCormack is set to announce a further $7.5 billion in new transport infrastructure spending in Tuesday’s federal budget, the Australian Associated Press (AAP) reported on Monday.   developing story ...

Analysts at Scotiabank offer a brief preview of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) September monetary policy meeting minutes due this Wednesday. Key quotes

Analysts at Scotiabank offer a brief preview of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) September monetary policy meeting minutes due this Wednesday. Key quotes “The ... meeting ... introduced unexpected dissension in the ranks when two officials voted against the statement “One consideration will be whether debate and opposing views were somewhat more prevalent across non-voting FOMC members.”  “Markets may be sensitive toward any further indications that officials are not fully invested in an inflation overshoot. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari for one still doesn’t sound convincing to me.” “There are multiple drivers of inflation risk, but the fastest rate of growth in broad money supply in at least six decades could be one avenue through which committee members may be hesitant to overcommit to relaxed inflation targets along a timeline marked by “we’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.” 

USD/CHF drops to 0.9170, down 0.41% on a day, during early Monday. In doing so, the Swiss franc gains versus the US dollar as traders drop the greenba

USD/CHF stays on the backfoot after recently dropped to the lowest since last Wednesday.A short-term symmetrical triangle restricts the pair’s immediate downside ahead of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.Bulls will have 200-HMA as an extra barrier to cross before retaking the controls.USD/CHF drops to 0.9170, down 0.41% on a day, during early Monday. In doing so, the Swiss franc gains versus the US dollar as traders drop the greenback amid risk-on sentiment. It should also be noted that a four-day-old symmetrical triangle probes the pair sellers amid bearish MACD. Other than the 0.9165 immediate support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of September 18-25 upside near 0.9159 also probes the USD/CHF bears. Also acting as strong downside support could be a horizontal line including September 17 high and September 21 low, around 0.9140. Meanwhile, 0.9180 and the 0.9200 threshold can offer immediate resistance to the pair during its pullback, if any. Though, buyers will remain cautious unless breaking the triangle’s resistance, at 0.9210 now, followed by a 200-HMA level of 0.9228. USD/CHF hourly chart Trend: Sideways  

The safe-haven greenback is feeling the pull of gravity in Asia, with the US stock futures cheering President Trump's coronavirus recovery news. At pr

The S&P 500 futures rise, pushing the safe-haven US dollar lower. Risk sentiment improves on reports that Trump could be discharged from hospital on Monday. The safe-haven greenback is feeling the pull of gravity in Asia, with the US stock futures cheering President Trump's coronavirus recovery news. At press time, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against majors, is hovering at 93.72, representing a 0.10% decline on the day, having faced rejection at 94.03 on Friday.  The S&P 500 futures are trading 0.65% higher on the day on hopes that President Donald Trump could be discharged from the hospital later in the day, ratcheting down political tensions.  Stock markets fell in the second half of last week after Trump announced that he and the first lady were coronavirus positive and heading into quarantine. Trump's coronavirus infection news helped the dollar end a four-day losing trend on Friday.  Premature optimism An article by the New York Times states that Trump's medical details, including his fluctuating oxygen levels and a decision to begin treatment with a steroid drug, suggests the President suffering a more severe case of Covid-19 than the physicians acknowledged. As such, the optimism signaled by the S&P 500 futures looks premature and could fizzle out, reviving a haven demand for the greenback.  Technical levels  

Early Monday, Bloomberg came out with the news conveying no change in Saudi Arabia’s September month oil production. As per the update that relies on

Early Monday, Bloomberg came out with the news conveying no change in Saudi Arabia’s September month oil production. As per the update that relies on an industry official, the kingdom’s oil output dropped from 8.988 million barrels a day in August to 8.974 million barrels a day in September. In doing so, Riyadh maintains its OPEC+ target production of below 9 million barrels a day since May, according to the piece. Key quotes With Brent crude under $40 a barrel as countries re-impose pandemic restrictions, the OPEC+ alliance is under pressure to deliver on those promised cuts. The kingdom exported 6.1 million barrels a day during September, up from 6.0 million barrels a day in August, the same official said. Market implications WTI seems not to pay attention to the news, which otherwise would have a non-event, despite refreshing the intraday high to $38.00. The oil benchmark recently gained bids as global risk sentiment improved on news suggesting US President Donald Trump’s recovery from the coronavirus (COVID-19). Read: WTI Price Analysis: Rebounds from 16-week-old support line above $37.00

The UK Finance Minister spoke about the strong economic and social impact of the lockdowns while warning against a further lockdown, in an interview w

The UK Finance Minister spoke about the strong economic and social impact of the lockdowns while warning against a further lockdown, in an interview with The Sun newspaper late Sunday. Key quotes "Having a difficult economy has an impact on both our ability to fund public services like the NHS but also on individual people's long-term health outcomes." Commenting on the 10 PM curfew on pubs and restaurants, Sunak said: “Of course, it’s frustrating. I know it’s difficult and wish we didn’t have to do these things.” Sunak’s comments come ahead of came ahead of his speech to the virtual Conservative Party conference on Monday. Market reaction more to come ...

AUD/JPY remains bid near 75.85, up 0.56% intraday, during early Monday. In doing so, the quote defies Friday’s halt to a four-day winning streak while

AUD/JPY extends Friday’s pullback from 74.93, rises for fifth day in last six.A falling trend line from August 31 adds to the upside barriers.September 25 top can lure bears low the fresh monthly bottom.AUD/JPY remains bid near 75.85, up 0.56% intraday, during early Monday. In doing so, the quote defies Friday’s halt to a four-day winning streak while taking a U-turn from 74.93. Even so, the quote needs to successfully break a 200-bar EMA level of 75.91 to regain the $76.00 threshold. Also acting as the key upside barrier is the confluence of a five-week-old falling trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement of August 31 to September 24 downside, currently around 76.25. On the contrary, pair’s declines below 74.93 will recall the bears targeting September 25 tops near 74.60 ahead of challenging the September month’s low of 73.97. During the quote’s further weakness below 73.97, the 73.00 round-figure and the June 22 bottom close to 72.75 can lure the AUD/JPY bears. AUD/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

AUD/USD is holding above a key support and the 4-hour 21 moving average which leaves conditions bullish. However, on a longer-term outlook, there are

AUD/USD bears sit patiently awaiting a break and re-test of old support.Bulls need to get above 07200 but resistance is strong. AUD/USD is holding above a key support and the 4-hour 21 moving average which leaves conditions bullish.  However, on a longer-term outlook, there are good reasons where there is a focus on the downside, including the feasible direction in the US dollar as explained in this link just below:DXY Price Analysis: EM-FX/DXY could be a tell-tale sign of things to comeMeanwhile, in the following topdown analysis, these are illustrated on the monthly and daily charts: Monthly chart The monthly wick is compelling and may at least coincide with dollar strength. Weekly chart The daily chart is offering prospects of a downside extension to fill in the monthly wick. 4-hour chart The bears are looking for the current resistance to hold and lead to a retest of the current support that will turn new resistance.  The price will then be below structure and the 21-moving average for additional conviction. 

While gold (XAU/USD) has bounced up from Friday's low of $1,897, the yellow metal is still trapped in a descending channel, as seen on the 15-minute c

Gold bulls defend support of Friday's low of $1,897. The yellow metal is trapped in a descending triangle on the 15-minute chart. While gold (XAU/USD) has bounced up from Friday's low of $1,897, the yellow metal is still trapped in a descending channel, as seen on the 15-minute chart.  A move above the top end of the triangle, currently at $1,903, would confirm a breakout and open the doors for the Oct. 2 high of $1,917. Alternatively, acceptance below $1,897 – the lower end of the triangle – would reinforce the bearish view put forward by the hourly chart rising wedge breakdown confirmed on Friday and expose the 100-day SMA at $1,855. At press time, gold is trading at $1,900 per ounce.  Hourly and 15-min chartsTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

S&P 500 Futures takes the bids near 3,365, up 0.77% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the risk barometer defies Friday’s downbeat

S&P 500 Futures regain 3,350, up 0.80% intraday, after declining on Friday.US President Trump tweets a video with upbeat tone, had a short-term drive outside Walter Reed.Fears of dexamethasone usage, virus updates from Europe and UK probe the bulls.S&P 500 Futures takes the bids near 3,365, up 0.77% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the risk barometer defies Friday’s downbeat performance after US President Donald Trump and his wife Melania got coronavirus (COVID-19) infected. However, the latest updates from the US suggest that President Trump is recovering from the virus-led illness and hasn’t shown any sign of danger. To prove that, the Republican leader tweeted a video of himself and also took a round of Walter Reed to thank well-wishers. Further to convey Trump’s love for the American economy, updates suggest that the national leader spoke to US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin over the weekend for the COVID-19 stimulus. Elsewhere, the weekend meeting between the UK PM Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offers fresh hopes of a soft Brexit, Further, updates suggesting a sooner end to the deadlock over the US aid package talks also favor the risk-tone sentiment. On the contrary, usage of dexamethasone in President Trump’s treatment and fears of fresh lockdown restrictions in Britain and Europe question the market optimists. It’s worth mentioning that the absence of Chinese players and a light calendar also tame the market’s positive mood. Other than the upbeat prints of S&P 500 Futures, 1.5 basis points (bps) of gains by the US 10-year Treasury yields and over 2.0% gains of Australia’s ASX 200, coupled with a 1.24% rise by Japan’s Nikkei 225, also portray traders’ upbeat sentiment. Looking forward, news concerning the American President’s health will be the key ahead of the US ISM Services PMI for September, expected 56.0. Also important will be Brexit headlines and European Retail Sales. Read: The S&P 500 Weekly Forecast: Bulls may struggle below 3,400s, eyes on the rising bearish wedge

Turkey's Lira has tanked by 30% this year against the dollar largely on the back of the nation's massive current account deficit and fears of a balanc

Turkey's Lira has tanked by 30% this year against the dollar largely on the back of the nation's massive current account deficit and fears of a balance of payment crisis.  Turkey's trade deficit narrowed to $4.8 billion in September from $6.4 billion deficit in August. However, the full-year current account deficit is still expected to rise to 4% of the gross domestic product (GDP) – one of the widest on record.  Hence, narrowing the deficit is critical for Lira, as tweeted by Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF). 

Silver prices drops to $23.85 during Monday’s Asian session. Even so, the white metal prints 0.50% intraday gains while keeping bounce off the support

Silver prices ease from intraday high of $23.97.Dwindling MACD signals, bearish chart pattern keep sellers hopeful.Bulls need to cross last Tuesday’s top for fresh entries.Silver prices drops to $23.85 during Monday’s Asian session. Even so, the white metal prints 0.50% intraday gains while keeping bounce off the support line of a short-term rising wedge bearish chart play. The MACD histogram has been sluggish off-late while buyers fail to remain strong beyond $24.00. Hence, sellers are waiting for the confirmation of the rising wedge for fresh entries. Other than the $23.72 support line, the 200-HMA level of $23.42 also acts as the near-term key support, a break of which will highlight the September 25 low near $22.40/45. However, bears will have to smash the September 24 top surrounding $23.35 for the same. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of a three-day-old resistance line, at $24.25 now, will require a clear run-up beyond the September 29 high of $24.40 to recall the buyers. Following that, the $25.00 threshold and the early September lows close to $25.80/85 will be in the spotlight. Silver hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Citigroup Inc.'s analysts foresee German bond yields waking up from their third-quarter slumber and the 10-year yield's average falling to -0.6% in th

Citigroup Inc.'s analysts foresee German bond yields waking up from their third-quarter slumber and the 10-year yield's average falling to -0.6% in the October-December period, according to Bloomberg.  The benchmark yield averages -0.47% in the third quarter.  Key quotes (Source: Bloomberg) Uncertainty over the November U.S. election and a resurgence of the coronavirus should spur haven buying of bunds, adding downward pressure on yields. This quarter's German debt supply will be 60% less than the issuance seen in the April to September period. 

USD/JPY rises to 105.55, up 0.22% on a day, amid the initial hour of Monday’s Tokyo open. The pair recently gained from an uptick in the final reading

USD/JPY stays on the front foot near the intraday high of 105.59, defies Friday’s downbeat performance.Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI rises beyond 45.6 forecast to 46.9 in September.US President Trump recovers from the virus infection, hopes of stimulus, soft Brexit gain momentum.Virus and aid package updates from America become the key amid a light calendar, off in China.USD/JPY rises to 105.55, up 0.22% on a day, amid the initial hour of Monday’s Tokyo open. The pair recently gained from an uptick in the final reading of September month’s Jibun Bank Services PMI for Japan. Though, improving conditions of US President Donald Trump, after Friday’s coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, becomes the key reason for the risk barometer’s latest upside. Also on the positive side could be expectations of an aid package from America and Tokyo, as well as hopes that Britain will have a trade deal with the European Union (EU) before it officially leaves the bloc by the end of 2020. Trump’s recovery matters the most… In his latest video tweet, US President Trump sound mostly energetic and visited crows, in a short-drive with a mask, outside Walter Reed afterward. News also crossed wires, via Reuters, suggesting the Republican leaders’ talks with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin about the COVID-19 stimulus. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also sound optimistic for the much-awaited stimulus and added to the risk-on mood. Furthermore, news that UK PM Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met and approved an extra month of talks during the weekend, despite "significant gaps" in the last scheduled round of negotiations, also offered a boost to the market optimism. As a result, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gains 1.35% while S&P 500 Futures also add 0.75% to the kitty. Further to portray the positive mood, the US 10-year Treasury yields also rose 1.5 basis points (bps) to 0.709% as we write. It should also be noted that chatters concerning Japan’s COVID-19 stimulus and vaccine hopes are battling with the fresh risk of lockdowns in the UK and Europe. Moving on, off in China and an absence of major data/events from elsewhere increases the importance of the US President’s health updates for near-term market direction. Though, ISM Services PMI for September, expected 56.00, will be the key to watch during the US session. Technical analysis Unless crossing the 50-day SMA level of 105.75 on a daily closing basis, USD/JPY bulls will remain cautious.  

On Sunday we learned that the President had a fever and an oxygen saturation level below 94% on Friday morning, prompting his transfer to Walter Reed.

On Sunday we learned that the President had a fever and an oxygen saturation level below 94% on Friday morning, prompting his transfer to Walter Reed. However, the US President Donald Trump's illness with coronavirus has not impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed. The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent. However, his overall lead has dropped by two points since the last poll in September. We've since been told that the President was walking on his own Sunday and might be discharged Monday. President Trump has been reported to have received a Regeneron monoclonal antibody cocktail on Thursday, his first dose of remdesivir on Friday, and his first dose of dexamethasone Saturday.  Market implications So long as the news of progress and he continues to tweet upbeat feedback to the public, his campaign can continue towards the 3rd November elections which will be one less thing that Wall Street needs to be worried for. The S&P 500 Weekly Forecast: Bulls may struggle below 3,400s, eyes on the rising bearish wedge

South Korea Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.8, below expectations (50.1) in September

Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI registered at 46.9 above expectations (45.6) in September

EUR/USD jumped 0.74% last week, trimming the previous week's 1.77% decline. However, the currency pair is not out of the woods yet, as a widely-tracke

EUR/USD's weekly MACD shows a bullish-to-bearish trend change. While the pair bounced last week, it is not out of the woods yet. EUR/USD jumped 0.74% last week, trimming the previous week's 1.77% decline.  However, the currency pair is not out of the woods yet, as a widely-tracked longer duration technical indicator has flipped bearish for the first time since May.  The MACD histogram, an indicator used to identify trend changes and trend strength, has crossed below zero for the first time in six months, indicating a bearish reversal.  The 5- and 10-week simple moving averages have also produced a bearish crossover.  As such, a re-test of the recent low of 1.1612 cannot be ruled out. A violation there would expose 1.1495 (March 9 high).  On the higher side, the 50-day SMA at 1.18 is the level to beat for the bulls, followed by 1.1918 (Sept. 10 high). The pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 1.1720. Weekly chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

USD/CAD declines to 1.3285, down 0.17% intraday, as Tokyo opens for trading on Monday. In doing so, the loonie pair keeps late Friday’s U-turn from th

USD/CAD fails to keep Friday’s recovery moves, refreshes intraday low around 1.3285.U-turn from the key EMA, amid normal RSI conditions, favor sellers.50% Fibonacci retracement, Thursday’s low offer nearby supports.September 28-29 bottoms can offer additional resistances beyond the key EMA.USD/CAD declines to 1.3285, down 0.17% intraday, as Tokyo opens for trading on Monday. In doing so, the loonie pair keeps late Friday’s U-turn from the key 200-bar EMA. With the RSI conditions also not oversold, sellers are likely to hold the reins for a bit longer. As a result, 50% Fibonacci retracement of September 18-30 upside, near 1.3280, offers immediate support to the quote before Thursday’s low close to 1.3265. In a case where the USD/CAD prices remain weak past-1.3265, September 17 top and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3250/45 will challenge the bears. On the flip side, a clear break above the 200-hour EMA level of 1.3322 will confront late September lows surrounding 1.3255/50. However, sustained trading beyond 1.3255 will help USD/CAD bulls to challenge the previous month’s top near 1.3420. USD/CAD hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

NZ PM Ardern: To lift Covid-19 restrictions in Auckland from Wednesday More to come...

NZ PM Ardern: To lift Covid-19 restrictions in Auckland from Wednesday More to come...

Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) remains at 1.3% in September

Australia TD Securities Inflation (MoM): 0.1% (September)

New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0%) in September

NZD/USD struggles to keep the bounce off the intraday low of 0.6632 around 0.6640 during Monday’s Asian session. The kiwi pair began the week on a neg

NZD/USD stays pressured near two-week high flashed late last week.US President Donald Trump’s health recovery, hopes of stimulus favor risk-on mood.New Zealand government’s update on COVID-19 alerts becomes immediate catalyst.China’s off highlights risk news, US ISM Services PMI will be the key during North American session.NZD/USD struggles to keep the bounce off the intraday low of 0.6632 around 0.6640 during Monday’s Asian session. The kiwi pair began the week on a negative side as the US dollar remains on the front foot despite improving coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions of US President Donald Trump. The reason could be traced from downbeat virus updates from elsewhere as well as the market’s wait for the alert level announcements at home. Cautious optimism challenges NZD/USD traders… US President Trump’s short drive outside Walter Reed and an upbeat video helped S&P 500 Futures to kick-start the week on a positive side. Though, fears of harsh virus-led activity restrictions in New York, England, France and Ireland keep the market players directed towards the US dollar. It’s worth mentioning that hopes of the COVID-19 stimulus from America have recently gained momentum after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell spoke positively of the much-awaited aid package. Also favoring the optimists was the headline the US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talked over the stimulus during the weekend. Furthermore, virus updates suggesting that there have been no fresh community cases in New Zealand during the last week should have ideally favored the pair but couldn’t due to the greenback’s up-moves. Additionally, New Zealand’s ANZ Commodity Price for September, expected 0.0% versus -1.0% prior (revised), slipped to -0.2% but failed to gain any accolades. Amid all these plays, S&P 500 Futures add 0.60% as markets await Tokyo open. Looking forward, risk factors, mainly emanating from the US, will be important to watch for near-term direction amid off in China and regional holidays in Australia. However, any surprises from the New Zealand government, concerning alert levels, will be followed closely for immediate moves. Technical analysis 21-day SMA near 0.6645 offers immediate resistance to the pair ahead of the early August month’s top near 0.6690. On the contrary, the pair’s current trading momentum seems to drag it towards 0.6595 support comprising 10-day SMA.  

GBP/AUD has printed a long wick within a monthly right-hand shoulder of the Head and Shoulders. This wick is expected to be filled-in on lower time fr

GBP/AUD consolidates between key structures on the monthly, weekly and daily chart. Bears looking for prospects below daily support for confirmations. GBP/AUD has printed a long wick within a monthly right-hand shoulder of the Head and Shoulders. This wick is expected to be filled-in on lower time frames which could equate to a medium-term bearish breakout.  The following is a topdown analysis starting from the monthly chart, then weekly and daily.  Monthly chart (i) At this juncture, the price has been building a right-hand shoulder which could result in a break below the current support structure.  Monthly chart (ii) If there is not an immediate upside move back to the counter trendline, the wick will be filled in on a lower time frame.  Weekly chart The above is the price action within the wick which meets a fresh resistance structure. If this holds, there are the prospects of a downside breakout.  Daily chart The daily chart is somewhat more convincing on the downside but there is little to be done until the support structure is broken at which point the 4-hour chart can be monitored for a bearish technical environment.

WTI rises to $37.40 during the pre-Tokyo open Asian trading on Monday. The black gold slumped to the lowest since September 09 on Friday but stepped b

WTI picks up bids toward $37.50 following its U-turn from the lowest in one month.50% Fibonacci retracement offers immediate resistance ahead of $38.90-$39.00 key upside area.Sellers will target 61.8% Fibonacci retracement following the trend line break.WTI rises to $37.40 during the pre-Tokyo open Asian trading on Monday. The black gold slumped to the lowest since September 09 on Friday but stepped back from closing below an ascending trend line connecting lows marked in mid-June and early September. The buyers are currently attacking 50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 22 to August 26 run-up, near $37.40, a daily close beyond the same will aim for 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 21-day SMA, close to $38.90-$39.00, during the further rise. If at all the oil bulls remain dominant past-$39.00, the $4.00 round-figure and a downward sloping trend line from August 31, at $40.15 now, will be the key to watch. Alternatively, the energy benchmark’s daily close below the stated support line, currently around $36.85, may take a rest near September month’s low of $36.43 before targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $35.82. WTI daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

NZD/CAD has been carving out a bullish scenario on the monthly chart. However, there is some more price development on the cards within a range. Until

NZD/CAD holds in range leaning with a bullish bias. The 4-hour time frame offers a bullish technical environment according to the indicators. NZD/CAD has been carving out a bullish scenario on the monthly chart. However, there is some more price development on the cards within a range.  Until the resistance can be broken, there are sideways range price action prospects. The following is a topdown analysis which takes a look into the market structure and potential outcomes for the sessions ahead from a swing trading perspective.  The monthly outlook is bullish As can be seen, the price has retested the support of the structure and trendline. The path of least resistance is to the upside from this juncture. Weekly is trapped However, from a weekly perspective, we have a head and shoulders in the making on the completion of the right-hand side shoulder. There could be some immediate downside but only as far as the trendline and structure support unless a breakout to the downside is going to occur.  The daily is a similar story 4-hour is more encouraging for the bulls As the charts shows, there is a rising channel from which takes the price to a horizontal supply zone which may offer a breakout opportunity.  A break and test of the resistance turning support structure can now be monitored for on the 4-hour chart.  Technical indicators can be applied and monitored to offer more conviction.

Gold prices fade the day-start uptick to $1,904.66 while declining to $1,900 amid the early Asian session on Monday. Even so, the bullion flashes 0.13

Gold struggles to trim Friday’s losses despite bouncing off $1,897.32.Risk sentiment recovers amid updates that US President Donald Trump’s health is recovering from the virus.S&P 500 Futures print mild gains but other risk catalysts trade mixed.Risk catalysts are the key amid a light calendar in Asia, off in China.Gold prices fade the day-start uptick to $1,904.66 while declining to $1,900 amid the early Asian session on Monday. Even so, the bullion flashes 0.13% intraday gains after stepping back from a nearly two-week high on Friday. The metal has been under pressure following the news of US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus (COVID-19) infection broke. Although the latest positive updates from the US have helped S&P 500 Futures to kick-start the week on the positive side, gold buyers await fresh clues amid macro uncertainty. Virus-led risks remain on the table… Although US President Donald Trump’s latest tweet, followed by a short drive outside Walter Reed, offered initial optimism to the American stock futures, the market remains worried as virus woes gain momentum in the UK and Europe. The Guardian shares a leaked government document to highlight possibilities of a three-tier lockdown in England whereas Ireland, France and New York are also flashing signs of harsh activity restrictions. Concerns about Brexit have been positive after UK PM Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met and approved a further month of talks during the weekend despite "significant gaps" in the last scheduled round of negotiations. Furthermore, US stimulus hopes are on the rise as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the House Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are both optimistic about the much-awaited aid package. Also increasing the odds are recent updates suggesting that US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talked over the phone call and discussed efforts to get progress on economic stimulus. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print 0.30% gains to 3,354.38 whereas other risk barometers like AUD/USD and USD/JPY remain mostly mixed. While AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.7160, USD/JPY takes the bids to 105.53 by the time of the press. Although the golden week holidays in China and regional off in Australia, coupled with Asia’s light calendar, may restrict the market moves, updates concerning US President Donald Trump’s health will be the key to watch for near-term trade direction. Technical analysis Friday’s spinning top on the daily chart suggests traders’ indecision but 21-day SMA, at $1,914.44 now, restricts gold’s short-term upside momentum. Though, September 24 top near $1,877 and 100-day SMA around $1,857 are the key supports to watch during the yellow metal’s further declines.  

Australia Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI increased to 51.1 in September from previous 50.5

Australia Commonwealth Bank Services PMI above expectations (50) in September: Actual (50.8)

GBP/USD drops to 1.2922 during the early Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the Cable keeps the late Friday's range above 1.2900 while staying below

GBP/USD defies Friday’s recovery moves while declining from 1.2943.A confluence of 21-day SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement lures short-term sellers.Bulls seek a daily closing beyond 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for fresh entries.GBP/USD drops to 1.2922 during the early Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the Cable keeps the late Friday's range above 1.2900 while staying below the previous day’s peak surrounding 1.2955. With this, the pair marks another day below a descending trend line stretched from September 09, at 1.2965 now, which in turn suggests further weakness towards testing the 21-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of June-September upside, close to 1.2870. It should, however, be noted that the bullish MACD indicates challenges to the quote’s downside past-1.2870, which if ignored may take rest near the 100-day SMA level of 1.2780 before testing 1.2720 support comprising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, a daily closing beyond the 1.2965 resistance line won’t be enough to recall the buyers as multiple upside barriers near 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement, close to 1.3015, restrict the GBP/USD bulls afterward. Also acting as the key resistance is August 24 low near 1.3055 that holds the key to a north-run targeting the 1.3200 threshold. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The Guardian came out with the news, while relying on a leaked government paper, indicating further hardships for the English residents due to the cor

The Guardian came out with the news, while relying on a leaked government paper, indicating further hardships for the English residents due to the coronavirus (COVID-19). On the initial site, the document suggests closure of pubs and a ban on all social contact outside of household groups, per news. The details, however, are stricter and indicate three-tier plans like a traffic-light-style. The news also says that tougher measures that could be imposed by the government locally or nationally if COVID cases are not brought under control. Even so, anonymous government sources, cited by the piece, said the measures in the draft document, particularly those under alert level 3, had not been finalized and the document still needed to be approved by ministers in the COVID-operations committee and by the prime minister. Earlier during Asia, Labor Press quoted Jonathan Ashworth MP, Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary as saying, “Matt Hancock should come to the House of Commons on Monday to explain what on earth has happened, what impact it has had on our ability to contain this virus and what he plans to do to fix test and trace.” It should be noted that the latest virus update from the UK, per Reuters, suggest a jump of 22,961 cases due to the technical glitch citing earlier miss in transferring over 15,000 cases. FX implications As the trade-negative updates joining hands with US President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 infection, the market remains risk-off and favors the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. As a result, GBP/USD remains on the backfoot around 1.2920 following the news. Read: GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Will Boris break the Brexit deadlock? Volatility set to explode

Having begun the trading week up 10-pips to 0.7169, AUD/USD drops to 0.7160 as Monday’s session gains momentum in the Pacific despite regional holiday

AUD/USD fails to keep the uptick to 0.7169, follows Friday’s downbeat performance.US President Trump’s health is improving but virus updates from New York, France and Ireland are disturbing.News concerning the American stimulus package, Brexit rekindled hopes but nothing clear off-late.Developments on Trump’s health, second-tier Aussie data can entertain momentum traders.Having begun the trading week up 10-pips to 0.7169, AUD/USD drops to 0.7160 as Monday’s session gains momentum in the Pacific despite regional holidays in Australia. The pair has been pressured since Friday following the news of US President Donald Trump and his wife’s infection to the coronavirus (COVID-19). Although recent updates from America have been positive, virus news from elsewhere challenges the market sentiment. On the contrary, hopes concerning no-deal Brexit are waning while expectations of the US COVID-19 stimulus have been gaining momentum off-late. President Trump’s health conditions are the key… News of US President Trump’s COVID-19 infection breaks during the key time when America is only a few weeks away from the presidential election and the aid package is also about to be hammered, per US House leader Mitch McConnell. While the latest developments concerning the Republican leader’s health have been positive, doubts over his health and the US politics loom, which in turn weigh on the market’s risk-tone sentiment. On the other hand, The Guardian cites leaked government paper to hint on a new three-tier lockdown system is being planned for England whereas New York City's mayor Bill de Blasio recently said, per Reuters, that he sought partial lockdowns. Further, France also raised the virus-led restriction level to the highest while Ireland is joining the line as well. It should be noted that the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is optimistic about reaching the stimulus deal with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and is giving a mild hope to combat the risks. Also on the positive side could be the Brexit headlines that cite one more month of planned divorce talks after the expire of the ninth round of negotiations without any results. On the data front, Friday’s US employment numbers came in mixed and indicate economic fears, which in turn could be seen in the recent market performance. However, the US 10-year Treasury yields have been up off-late. Looking forward, traders will keep eyes on the risk catalysts amid a partial closure in Australia and a lack of major data/events from Asia. Despite regional holidays in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland, September month Commonwealth Bank Services PMI and TD Securities Inflation data for Australia can entertain AUD/USD traders. However, major attention will be given to the headlines concerning how US President Trump’s health conditions react to the recently contracted deadly virus. Technical analysis While 10-day SMA offers nearby support around 0.7125, a confluence of 21-day and 50-day SMA, near 0.7210 now, becomes the immediate key upside barrier to watch for AUD/USD traders.  

Early Monday morning in Asia, US President Donald Trump tweeted a video of himself praising the latest health reports from his doctors. The Republican

Early Monday morning in Asia, US President Donald Trump tweeted a video of himself praising the latest health reports from his doctors. The Republican leader also thanks to the medical staff and all those supporters while suggesting a “surprise visit” while saying to understand the virus by going into the “real school”. The underlying tone of President Trump seems a bit more positive than his earlier videos. FX implications The news fails to renew market sentiment even with the upbeat tone of Mr. Trump. AUD/USD stays pressured near 0.7160 by the time of the press. The reason could be traced from worsening virus conditions in New York, France and Ireland as well as uncertainty surrounding the US stimulus bill.

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson claims the UK can “more than live with” a no-deal Brexit. In an interview with Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew M

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson claims the UK can “more than live with” a no-deal Brexit. In an interview with Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr, Johnson said he didn’t “want the Australian, WTO-type outcome particularly, but we can more than live with it”. However, Brussels has not shut down trade talks as neither side want to fall back on WTO trade terms next year. Instead, the EU has signalled it is pursuing legal action against London in retaliation over the controversial Internal Markets Bill (IMB). However, this will take time and doesn’t preclude a deal being done in the meantime. Indeed, statement published by the European Commission on Saturday said that commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Johnson had agreed on the importance of coming to an agreement during a video conference. In the joint statement, they said that “progress had been made in recent weeks but that significant gaps remained”. On the possibility of a deal, Johnson told Marr “I think it’s there to be done. Alas, there are some difficult issues that need to be fixed.”GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Will Boris break the Brexit deadlock? Volatility set to explode     
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